Valspar Championship 2025 FRL Tips: Four to fire on Thursday morning

The Valspar Championship begins tomorrow in challenging, blustery conditions that could result in a significant draw bias. Ace golf tipster Jamie Worsley can hopefully take advantage of this to help us find this week’s first-round leader at the Copperhead Course.

He previews the opening round and gives his thoughts on the players who he feels have a good chance of getting a flying start on Thursday. Check out his Valspar Championship 2025 FRL Tips below.

Valspar Championship 2025 Odds

Wind is forecast to be a factor over the course of Thursday’s opening round, but there is no doubt that it currently looks considerably tougher for the afternoon starters.

Those out first will be faced with fairly gentle 9mph winds, gusting at around 12mph, which could rise to a testing 20mph by the time they finish, and just as those later starters begin. It will continue to rise throughout the first round, with persistent winds of 20mph accompanied by gusts of 30mph+ for the majority of the afternoon.

This would give a clear advantage to the AM wave tomorrow and that’s where I’ll focus all of my attention in this week’s first-round leader market.

1 pt Keith Mitchell each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 40/1

Start time: 08:02

Keith Mitchell had every chance of winning this event last year, as he entered the final round with a two-shot lead. He slipped to 17^th after a disastrous 77 there, but the event as a whole gave us further evidence of how well suited he is to the course, and as a good wind player he has every chance of taking the first-round lead from his morning tee time.

Mitchell missed the cut for the first time this year in last week’s PLAYERS Championship, recording two top-25 finishes across his first five starts. He’s driving the ball better than anyone in this field, has been largely solid in approach and prior to last week, he’d looked decent on the greens.

He hasn’t shot an over-par round on day one in any event year in 2025. His best start of the season came two starts ago in the Cognizant Classic, as he opened with a seven-under 64 to sit 5^th after 18 holes.

Mitchell has made the cut in each previous start in this event and has recorded two top 20s, finishing 11^th in 2017 and 17^th last year. He’s opened with a round of 70 or better in all, including firing a four-under 67 last year to finish the first day in 6^th place. Whilst a 66 in round three there is another positive in relation to his chances in this market.

Golf Odds

1 pt Rico Hoey each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 55/1

Start time: 07:35

Rico Hoey has started to find form in recent starts following a slow start to the season. He showed promise on his debut here last year and having signed off THE PLAYERS Championship with his best putting round of the season, he has every chance of taking the first-round lead.

Hoey failed to crack the top 50 and missed three cuts across his first five starts this season. However, he found something when 25^th in the Cognizant Classic and he has backed that up with finishes of 26^th in Puerto Rico and 33^rd at TPC Sawgrass. Improved form that has been aided by quality ball striking, ranking 2^nd off-the-tee and 23^rd in approach in this field in 2025.

He's also found first-round form in those recent finishes, opening with rounds of 66 in the Cognizant Classic and 67 in Puerto Rico to hit the top 20 on day one. This is reminiscent of how he was starting events at the end of last year and I’m particularly encouraged by his effort in the World Wide Technology Championship back in November, as he opened with a 67 in windy conditions to share the first-round lead.

Hoey made a fast start on his debut in this event last year, with a four-under 67 enough to carry him into 6^th place in the first round. A performance I’m confident he can not only match but improve on tomorrow.

0.75 pts Davis Riley each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 70/1

Start time: 08:08

Davis Riley’s game continues to show signs of life. He’s produced some great first-round displays in recent starts and possessing a fine record at the Copperhead Course, he looks a lively contender to hit the top of the leaderboard on day one.

Riley failed to make a cut in his first five starts this season, but he comes into this week after making his last three, recording finishes of 48^th in the Cognizant Classic, 6^th in the Puerto Rico Open and 38^th in THE PLAYERS. He’s putted well for most of the season, though it’s been the improved approach play that has engineered the upturn in form, gaining strokes in each of his last three recorded starts.

He's been among the best starters in this field recently, ranking 11^th in round one performance in his last four events. This includes firing a seven-under 64 to sit 5^th after the first round of the Cognizant Classic, whilst two starts ago he shot an eight-under 64 in Puerto Rico to finish day one in 3^rd place.

Riley was one shot off the first-round lead on his debut here in 2022, opening with a six-under 65. That was an event in which he eventually finished 2^nd thanks to a superb nine-under 62 in round three – a stroke shy of the course record – and after going well the following year when finishing 19^th, this is a venue that clearly suits his eye.

0.75 pts Chandler Phillips each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 70/1

Start time: 07:35

Chandler Phillips has had a couple of day one top 10s over his last three starts and now returns to a course where he finished an excellent 3^rd on debut last year. Which can help him make a fast start from his advantageous tee time on Thursday.

Phillips hasn’t pulled up any trees thus far in 2025, but he’s been solid enough, making four of his last five cuts. The latest of these was a 61^st-place finish at TPC Sawgrass, where he produced his best approach performance of the season, ranking 24^th.

He was among the best starters on tour last season, ranking 12^th in round one scoring. This has also become a feature of his most recent starts, after rounds of 66 in Mexico and 68 in THE PLAYERS saw him record first-round top 10s in each.

Phillips opened with a 68 in this event last year and fired three further under-par rounds to record that 3^rd-place finish. In addition, he’s a capable wind player – no doubt a result of his Texas roots – which he proved when winning The Bahamas Great Exuma Classic in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour.

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.