Kenya Open 2025 Tips: 150/1 shot one of six in Africa

After a week off following Haotong Li’s success in Qatar, the DP World Tour returns to action for the start of a three-week stint in Africa.

It’s to South Africa for the South African and Joburg Opens in the coming weeks, but first we head to Kenya for the Magical Kenya Open at Muthaiga Golf Club.

As always, here is Jamie Worsley's comprehensive preview and his Kenya Open 2025 Tips. He's picked out six players ranging from 35/1 to 150/1!

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Kenya Open was first staged in 1967 and has been held on several different tours across its more than 50-year history. Prior to achieving DP World Tour status in 2019, it had most recently established itself as an important part of the HotelPlanner (Challenge) Tour schedule, where it was a mainstay from 1991 – 2018.

There has been no shortage of star names etched onto this trophy, including a trio of Masters winners: Seve Ballesteros (1978), Ian Woosnam (1986) and Trevor Immelman (2000).

Last five winners:

• 2024 – Winner: Darius Van Driel (-14)

Runners-up: Joe Dean, Nacho Elvira (-12)

• 2023 – Winner: Jorge Campillo (-18)

Runner-up: Masahiro Kawamura (-16)

• 2022 – Winner: Ashun Wu (-16)

Runners-up: Aaron Cockerill, Thriston Lawrence, Hurly Long (-12)

• 2021 – Winner: Justin Harding (-21)

Runner-up: Kurt Kitayama (-19)

• 2019 – Winner: Guido Migliozzi (-16)

Runners-up: Adri Arnaus, Justin Harding, Louis de Jager (-15)

Dutchman Darius Van Driel claimed the first-round lead in this event last year and never looked back, completing an impressive wire-to-wire victory to claim his first title on the DP World Tour. He returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Muthaiga Golf Club has hosted the previous three editions of this event and returns to host again this week. It was the almost-exclusive home of the tournament from 1967 – 2002 but had been sharing the honour with Karen Country Club since 2003.

The original course at Muthaiga Golf Club opened in 1913, but it went through an extensive renovation in 2002 at the hands of prolific architect, Peter Matkovich.

Based in Nairobi, the course sits around 5900ft above sea level. This means that the ball will fly roughly 6.85% further and results in this 7208-yard par 71 playing closer to 6714 yards. It possesses 5x par 3s (191-224 yards), 9x par 4s (346-507 yards) and 4x par 5s (534-616 yards).

The course’s meagre adjusted length doesn’t mean a lack of difficulty, as we saw with Darius Van Driel’s winning score of -14 last year. When we counter in some of those most recent renewals on the HotelPlanner Tour, the average winning score for the last five Kenya Opens played here is -15.2.

Muthaiga Golf Club is a strategic course, on which players must intelligently navigate their way through densely tree-lined, tight and predominantly doglegging corridors.

Its narrow fairways are tricky to find and protected by limited but smart strategic bunkering. However, simply finding the short grass isn’t always enough, and on many holes it’s imperative that players hit the correct side of the hole to give themselves the best chance of attacking the bentgrass greens.

The putting surfaces are small and whilst they’re not severely undulating, they are usually super quick – said to be some of the fastest in East Africa. They rank among the 15 most challenging to putt on tour.

There are two distinctly different nines here. The outward half is more difficult and hillier than the back nine and possesses many of the longer holes on the course. This includes two par 3s at 200yds+; two lengthy par 4s in the shape of the 507-yard 6^th and the 498-yard 8^th; whilst the longest hole on the course, the 616-yard par 5 7^th, also comes up over your first nine.

The excitement then ramps up on the back nine, with water – in-play on eight holes in total – a more apparent danger. When combined with several of the more scorable holes on the course, it creates a real risk/reward finish.

These final holes are bookended by a pair of sub-540yd par 5s that should be reachable for most in the field, whilst the 346yd par 4 17^th could be drivable over the course of the week.

THE WEATHER

The forecast is predicting hot, bright and clear conditions for this year’s Kenya Open, both before and during each round of the event. This should help those greens get up to and maintain their speed.

Although we could see gusts at close to 25mph throughout the week, these should be fleeting, and the players will only have to deal with a gentle breeze of 7-9mph for the majority of the tournament.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation

Muthaiga Golf Club requires a player to have most areas of their game firing but there’s no doubt that iron play into these small, speedy surfaces has rated as the most important factor.

Darius Van Driel ranked 13^th in approach and 10^th in greens-in-regulation on his way to victory last year, whilst runner-up, Nacho Elvira ranked 10^th in approach.

It was a similar story for the 2023 champion, Jorge Campillo, who ranked 6^th in approach and 2^nd in GIR. Meanwhile, 2022 winner, Ashun Wu ranked 5^th in approach.

• Scrambling

With these small greens difficult to hit, it should come as no surprise that every winner – and indeed many challengers – have scrambled well at Muthaiga.

Darius Van Driel ranked 3^rd in scrambling last year, as runners-up, Nacho Elvira and Joe Dean each ranked inside the top 11.

Jorge Campillo was the ninth-best scrambler in the field in 2023, with Santiago Tarrio in 3^rd ranking 4^th. Ashun Wu was a solid 14^th when coming out on top in 2022.

• Driving Accuracy

Every winner on the DPWT here has been more accurate than they were long and finding fairways has been especially important for our last two champions, as Darius Van Driel ranked 10^th and Jorge Campillo 2^nd in driving accuracy in their respective winning years.

That isn’t to say longer hitters can’t enjoy success here – particularly if they also possesses a decent level of accuracy with driver – as they’ll be able to club down for position on many holes. Though I’d be wanting to avoid the more erratic types.

• SG: Putting (bentgrass)

Those who have a proven track record of positive putting displays on bentgrass greens should have an advantage on these demanding surfaces.

2024 runner-up, Joe Dean ranked 2^nd on the greens, whilst Darius Van Driel ranked inside the top 20.

The previous year’s runner-up, Masahiro Kawamura led the field with putter while winner, Jorge Campillo ranked top 25. Whilst the putter was in fact the most important club in the bag for Ashun Wu in 2022, as he ranked 3^rd.

• Par 5 Scoring

Lastly, as a course where scoring hasn’t been especially easy in previous years, this week’s competitors will have to take advantage of obvious scoring chances. These no doubt come on the par 5s, with three of the four playing at around 550yds or shorter.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Soudal Open/Belgian Knockout (Rinkven International)

As a short, densely tree-lined and doglegging course, the strategic Rinkven International jumps off the page as a perfect comp for this week. This belief is strengthened by tee-to-green stats that compare closely to Muthaiga and with correlating form plentiful, it’s a great place to start.

Notable correlating form:

Darius Van Driel:

Kenya (1^st) / Belgian Knockout (2^nd)

Jorge Campillo:

Kenya (1^st) / Belgian Knockout (5^th)

Nacho Elvira:

Kenya (2^nd) / Soudal (1^st)

Joe Dean:

Kenya (2^nd) / Soudal (5^th)

Aaron Cockerill:

Kenya (2^nd) / Soudal (10^th)

Ryo Hisatsune:

Kenya (3^rd) / Soudal (10^th)

Adrian Otaegui:

Kenya (4^th) / Belgian Knockout (1^st)

Matthew Jordan:

Kenya (4^th) / Soudal (5^th)

Ewen Ferguson:

Kenya (7^th, 8^th) / Belgian Knockout (3^rd)

Omega European Masters (Crans-sur-Sierre)

At sub-7000yds, tree-lined and played at altitude, Crans-sur-Sierre is another obvious comp course for this week. The doglegging fairways pose similar challenges off the tee and the small bentgrass/poa mixed greens rank closely to Muthaiga in putting difficulty.

Notable correlating form:

Lorenzo Gagli:

Kenya (1^st) / European Masters (2^nd)

Jorge Campillo:

Kenya (1^st) / European Masters (4^th)

Ashun Wu:

Kenya (1^st) / European Masters (6^th, 9^th)

Thriston Lawrence:

Kenya (2^nd) / European Masters (1^st)

Nacho Elvira:

Kenya (2^nd) / European Masters (4^th)

Masahiro Kawamura:

Kenya (2^nd) / European Masters (8^th, 9^th)

Matthew Jordan:

Kenya (4^th) / European Masters (4^th)

Connor Syme:

Kenya (7^th) / European Masters (3^rd)

British Masters (The Belfry – Brabazon Course)

The Belfry’s Brabazon Course ticks many of the same boxes, as a narrow, tree-lined course with several severe doglegs and speedy greens. It asks the same questions of players with the driver, as well as around the putting surfaces.

Notable correlating form:

Jorge Campillo:

Kenya (1^st) / British Masters (6^th, 7^th)

Thriston Lawrence:

Kenya (2^nd) / British Masters (2^nd)

Hurly Long:

Kenya (2^nd) / British Masters (6^th)

Connor Syme:

Kenya (7^th) / British Masters (3^rd)

Ewen Ferguson:

Kenya (7^th, 8^th) / British Masters (4^th)

Julien Brun:

Kenya (7^th) / British Masters (8^th)

Jeong Weon Ko:

Kenya (9^th) / British Masters (4^th)

ISPS Handa World Invitational/2020 Irish Open (Galgorm Castle)

The ISPS Handa World Invitational was dropped from the DPWT schedule last year, but its host course, Galgorm Castle – which can again be found as the home of the Northern Ireland Open on the HotelPlanner Tour – still rates as one of the very best comps for Muthaiga.

It’s a short and strategic tree-lined course, with narrow, doglegging fairways and small, quick bentgrass/poa mixed greens. It ranked closely to our Kenya Open host in most aspects, particularly so in short-game difficulty.

Notable correlating form:

Aaron Rai:

Kenya (1^st) / Galgorm (2^nd)

Darius Van Driel:

Kenya (1^st) / Galgorm (7^th)

Masahiro Kawamura:

Kenya (2^nd) / Galgorm (3^rd)

Adrian Otaegui:

Kenya (4^th) / Galgorm (4^th)

Borja Virto:

Kenya (5^th) / Galgorm (2^nd)

David Horsey:

Kenya (5^th) / Galgorm (2^nd)

Daniel Gavins:

Kenya (6^th) / Galgorm (1^st)

Ewen Ferguson:

Kenya (7^th, 8^th) / Galgorm (1^st)

Connor Syme:

Kenya (7^th) / Galgorm (2^nd, 4^th)

Alfred Dunhill Championship (Leopard Creek Country Club)

Despite being more generous off-the-tee, the tree-lined Leopard Creek has many similarities to Muthaiga. These are especially evident into/on the small, fast greens, which possess a comparable level of difficulty in approach and putting.

Notable correlating form:

Darius Van Driel:

Kenya (1^st) / Alfred Dunhill (4^th, 5^th)

Aaron Cockerill:

Kenya (2^nd) / Alfred Dunhill (4^th)

Adrian Otaegui:

Kenya (4^th) / Alfred Dunhill (2^nd)

Jayden Schaper:

Kenya (7^th) / Alfred Dunhill (2^nd)

THE FIELD

The return of the DP World Tour brings with it our weakest field of the year, with zero players from the world’s top 100 in attendance and John Parry at #110 the highest-ranking player.

That being said, this is not a negative in terms of interest and means many players who have found their chances limited at the start of 2025 now get their chance to shine.

Darius Van Driel is our defending champion and one of six former winners in the field, joined by Jorge Campillo (2023), Ashun Wu (2022), Justin Harding (2021), Guido Migliozzi (2019) and Sebastian Soderberg (2016).

Our latest winner on the DPWT in Qatar, Haotong Li will tee it up, as will last week’s champion on the HotelPlanner Tour, Wilco Nienaber.

Talented Spaniard, Eugenio Chacarra will make his first DPWT start of the year after departing LIV; 21-year-old German and former top-30 amateur, Tiger Christensen adds further youthful intrigue to the field; meanwhile, Japan’s Hiroshi Iwata and Korea’s Wooyoung Cho make their first starts as DPWT members, having earned their cards via the Japanese and Korean tours respectively in 2024.

Kenya Open Odds

SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Haotong Li 22/1, Sebastian Soderberg 22/1, Jorge Campillo 22/1, Angel Ayora 25/1, Joost Luiten 28/1, Joe Dean 28/1

This tight tree-lined course is a largely different test to the open, exposed desert courses that we were treated to in the Middle East swing, where lengthy, sometimes inaccurate hitters held sway. Therefore, I wouldn’t be put off by a lack of form in those opening events if a player usually excels on similar setups to Muthaiga.

In a wide open event with no real standout at the top of the betting, that thought process has led me to five-time DP World Tour winner Adrian Otaegui. He belied poor desert form to go well here last year and goes in as the headline selection this week.

1.5 pts Adrian Otaegui each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 35/1

Otaegui claimed that fifth DPWT title in the weather-shortened China Open last year and was in good form as we closed out 2024, recording zero missed cuts across his last 10 starts.

He’s failed to threaten the top of the leaderboard so far this year, recording a best of 49^th in Bahrain in four starts. However, he was in much the same form coming to Kenya last year, with form figures of 56-MC-MC-65 in his four prior events, but he was able to upgrade his performance at this more suitable setup, finishing 4^th, and I’m hoping for a similar response this week.

The irons haven’t quite fired as yet this season, though he’s one of the best iron players in this field according to most timeframes, ranking 6^th in approach across the last six months and 12^th across the previous 12. He’s also the straightest driver among this week’s group and scrambling well so far in 2025, I feel we’re not far away from seeing a big effort from him.

Otaegui has made each cut here, finishing 34^th in 2022 and 30^th in 2023 before his excellent top 5 last year. With some fine comp form on show, such as a victory at Rinkven in the Belgian Knockout in 2018, a runner-up finish in the Alfred Dunhill Championship and a 4^th-place finish at Galgorm Castle, there are plenty of reasons to be positive about his chances.

1.25 pts Brandon Robinson-Thompson each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 40/1

Brandon Robinson-Thompson has quickly developed into one of the most popular players on the DPWT at the start of this year. With Muthaiga looking a good fit, he can make use of those positive vibes to breakthrough at this level this week.

Robinson-Thompson has worked hard to make his way up the golfing pyramid since turning pro in 2017. He initially began his pro career on the PGA Tour Americas in 2018 but found starts in the pro game hard to come by before and coming out of the COVID pandemic.

Things started to turn around in 2022, as he won his first pro title on the EuroPro Tour (a now defunct European development tour) and he added four further development tour titles to his name in 2023 – three on the Clutch Tour and one on the Mena Tour. These results earned him an invite into the Irish Challenge on the HotelPlanner Tour that same year, which he duly won.

Although falling agonisingly short of an upgrade to the DPWT that year, he put it right in 2024, as a second victory at that level in the Scottish Challenge helped him into a top-20 finish on the Road to Mallorca and banked him a DPWT card.

The Englishman has made five starts this season but has really come alight on the last two. He entered the final round of both the Bahrain Championship and Qatar Masters in 2^nd place, eventually recording finishes of 8^th and 3^rd in those events respectively.

He’s gaining strokes right across his game but has excelled with the putter, ranking 19^th. The driver is another weapon, ranking 45^th off-the-tee and combining top-25 power with a commendable level of accuracy, he could bully some of the main scoring holes here. With his irons also starting to fire, ranking 12^th and 8^th in approach on those two latest starts, he has his game in a great place to tackle this course.

BRT will make his Muthaiga debut this week, but he has made a habit of winning on similar courses. He won the Northern Ireland Open at Galgorm Castle on the Clutch Tour in 2023, and both wins on the HotelPlanner Tour came on similarly short, tight tree-lined courses.

1 pt Martin Couvra each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 50/1

Talented French youngster, Martin Couvra has made a real impression in his rookie season so far and as an accurate ball-striker who has looked largely good on the greens, he should be a great fit for Muthaiga.

Couvra turned pro in 2023 after a successful amateur career that took him as high as #52 in the world. He’s no stranger to winning on the African continent, claiming the South African Amateur and South African Stroke Play Championship at the start of that year, and he transferred that winning ability to the pro ranks on just his eighth professional start, winning the Challenge de Espana on the HotelPlanner Tour.

He didn’t quite do enough thereafter to earn an immediate promotion to the DPWT, but he rectified that in 2024, as 11 top-25 finishes, and seven top 10s helped him to a top-20 finish in the Road to Mallorca standings.

His potential to perform at this level was evident from the off at the end of last year, as he finished 7^th at Leopard Creek in the Alfred Dunhill Championship. He did miss his next two cuts on tour following that, but he’s returned to form in a big way in the last two events, finishing 4^th in Bahrain and 5^th in Qatar.

He’s been really strong from tee-to-green so far, ranking 12^th, but it’s with his approach play that he’s shone most, ranking 8^th. Along with being an accurate 36^th in driving accuracy and top 40 in putting, he’s a great statistical match for this challenge.

Couvra will make his debut at this course but that 7^th at Leopard Creek bodes well. In addition, it’s also worth noting that his best result of 2024 on the HotelPlanner Tour came at the short, tree-lined Adamstal Golf Club in the Euram Bank Open.

1 pt Kristoffer Reitan each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 55/1

Kristoffer Reitan went well for us last time out in Qatar, finishing 14^th. He continued to hit the ball well there and possessing a highly-coveted combination of power and accuracy, he may just be able to dominate this layout.

Reitan was a former #16 amateur who initially qualified for the DPWT in 2019 via Q-School after just turning pro. He booked his return to the tour last year via the HotelPlanner Tour, where he was in particularly good form at the end of the year, finishing with six straight top 20s and picking up a first pro victory in the season-ending Grand Final.

The Norwegian missed three of his first four cuts on the DPWT in Africa at the end of last year, but he’s looked much better in 2025. He finished 36^th on his first start of the year in Ras Al Khaimah; following by finishing 24^th in Bahrain from the wrong side of a draw bias and then 14^th in Qatar two weeks ago.

There’s nobody in this field driving the ball better and as well as being the ninth-longest driver, he ranks top 25 in driving accuracy. A ranking of 24^th in approach over those three starts this year is another big plus and with the short game looking much sharper than it did at the end of 2024, there’s no area of his game causing concern.

Reitan hasn’t played here before, but he did finish 20^th in the Kenya Savannah Classic in 2020 at Karen Country Club – a similarly tight, tree-lined course.

1 pt Nacho Elvira each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 70/1

Nacho Elvira produced his best performance of the season in Qatar last time out and having finished 2^nd at Muthaiga last year, this two-time DPWT winner looks a big price to claim a third victory this week.

Elvira was playing solid enough golf at the end of last year, signing off 2024 with a 19^th-place finish in the Alfred Dunhill Championship. He didn’t quite fire over the first three events this year, finishing 58^th in Dubai and missing cuts in Ras Al Khaimah and Bahrain, but he looked to have turned his fortunes around in Qatar, finishing 25^th.

The most promising theme of his play this year has been greater accuracy off the tee. That being said, his result in Qatar was engineered by a best approach performance of the season, ranking 28^th. This is an area in which he’s excelled most over the last 12 months, ranking 34^th – a position he also ranks in putting - and as a top-20 scrambler, he is a strong match for this course.

Elvira made his debut here in 2023, finishing a solid 40^th, but he improved massively last year with that 2^nd-place finish. He then recorded the second of those two DPWT wins in the correlating Soudal Open a few months later and possessing a top-5 finish at Crans, he has some strong comp form to boot.

1 pt Ryan Van Velzen each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 150/1

Ryan Van Velzen was in good form at the end of 2024, as he went close to recording a first DPWT win in the Alfred Dunhill Championship. He hasn’t managed to carry that over into this year, though he did find something in approach in Qatar on his latest start and as a player who relies more on accuracy than power, he should relish a return to a course at which he finished 11^th last year.

Van Velzen began this season with a 24^th-place finish in the Australian PGA Championship at the end of last year, before then finishing 48^th in the Nedbank Challenge. However, it was his next start where he impressed most, finishing 2^nd at Leopard Creek by a shot. Although, bogeying two of the closing three par 5s, including on the 18^th when a birdie would’ve won it, it was a chance that got away.

There appears to be some hangover from that finish, as he hasn’t cracked the top 60 on his next five starts but he produced his best round in approach at Doha Golf Club, ranking 16^th. Something I’m counting on him maintaining here.

Van Velzen entered the final round of his debut at Muthaiga in 3^rd place last year, before eventually dropping down to 11^th after a final-round 71. Although he hasn’t managed to get it over the line, there’s plenty of encouragement to be taken from him contending in these DPWT events. I’m hoping the disappointing finishes he’s experienced both here and at Leopard Creek will serve him well if he again finds himself in the mix this week.

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