Bath vs Bristol Prediction: Derby delight for Bath

Among the fiercest derbies in English rugby, Bath against Bristol often produces fireworks and the same is expected when these sides meet at The Recreation Ground on Saturday (15:05 kick-off).

Read on for my Bath vs Bristol predictions, as well as the latest team news and match odds.

Rugby Union Odds

The Blue, Black and White have begun their season with wins over the side that beat them in last season's Grand Final, Northampton, and their old rivals, Leicester.

Meanwhile, the Bears were easy winners at Newcastle in the opening round but came undone in a high-scoring three-point defeat to Gloucester.

That match turned into an 85-point shootout and was reminiscent of this pair's meeting at Ashton Gate in January, where Bristol ran out the 57-44 victors.

However, meetings at The Rec are traditionally tighter - the last three in the Premiership have been decided by one, two and two points.

Bristol can run Bath close, but after last June's Twickenham heartache, Johann van Graan's hosts look the real deal and can edge another victory.

Team News

Bath skipper Ben Spencer will make his 100th appearance for the club at scrum-half, while recent South African Rugby Championship-winning prop Thomas du Toit returns to pack down at tighthead.

There is also an eye-catching selection in the back three, where Ruaridh McConnochie is on the left wing and Sam Harris at 15. That means usual full-back Tom de Glanville will start on the right wing.

Openside flanker Santiago Grondona will make his Bristol debut after missing all of last season with a knee injury.

The Bears' other change sees Rich Lane replacing the injured Siva Naulago on the right wing.

Gallagher Premiership Odds

Bath are 1/4 to win on Saturday, with a tie 25/1 and Bristol, who have won their last six away matches in the Premiership, 16/5.

The Bears are +10 in the three-way handicap, at odds of 10/11.

Bath to win by 1-12 points inclusive @ 19/10

Bristol have been impressive on the road in 2024, losing only once, and that reverse came with caveats, as it was in the Champions Cup at Connacht on a typically tricky Friday evening in Galway.

They already have that road win over Newcastle under their belts and showed generally good signs against Gloucester but were undone by some moments of brilliance from the Cherry and Whites' half-backs.

Facing Bath, though, represents a step up and Van Graan's side have shown they mean business by beating both Northampton and Leicester this season and only lost twice at The Rec last term.

They will happily take the Bears on with ball-in-hand, but have a more consistent forward pack that can set the platform for Finn Russell to pull the strings and the likes of De Glanville to thrive.

The 24-year-old is emerging from his famous father's, former England captain Phil, shadow and has been tipped for an international call-up in November.

After crossing at Welford Road last Sunday, he is worth keeping an eye on, while despite playing with 14 on his back, expect him to pop up in midfield to dovetail with Russell.

Their playmaking axis has improved Bath, especially with Cam Redpath still injured and with Du Toit part of a slightly more solid pack, a battling home win beckons.

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