Storm vs Sharks Predictions: Back Katoa and the Premiers at AAMI Park

The Minor Premiers get their NRL finals campaign underway on Saturday, the Melbourne Storm hosting the Cronulla Sharks at AAMI Park in the second qualifying final (kick-off 07:05 BST, 16:05 local, live on Sky Sports Mix).

The Storm were the stand-out side in the regular season, and earned top spot with a couple of weeks to spare. So will they be game ready against the Sharks? Here are my Storm vs Sharks predictions.

Storm vs Sharks Odds

It’s not unusual for the league winners to be favourited over the fourth-placed visitors in a qualifying final, and the Storm are heavily backed to march on to the semi-finals with a win here.

Craig Bellamy’s side are 3/10 to get the job done, at an implied probability of 76.9%, with the Sharks available at 13/5. The draw in 80 minutes is 22/1.

Team News

Ryan Papenhuyzen’s return couldn’t have been better timed. He missed the thumping win in Brisbane against the Broncos in round 27 with a leg injury, but his deputee Sualauvi Fa’alogo picked up a knock to his hamstring and so misses out.

Christian Welch is back on the bench after illness, with Grant Anderson selected as the 18th player in the initial list of 22.

Rugby League Odds

For the Sharks, Oregon Kaufusi is backed having been left out of the 40-20 victory over the Sea Eagles last week. Royce Hunt drops to the bench to make way, with Thomas Hazelton’s knee injury making him a doubt.

Hazelton is included in the reserve list in case he makes it after monitoring.

Eliesa Katoa anytime tryscorer @ 5/4

The Storm have threats all over the field, with nine players having scored eight tries or more in their march to the Minor Premiership.

Among the likes of Xavier Coates, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Will Warbrick, back-rower Eliesa Katoa is one of the newer names on the block. His 12 tries in 22 games were easily the best return of his career so far as his quality on the edge being one of the big reasons the Storm were such a revelation.

The 24-year-old has been sensational in his second full season in Melbourne, and I can well see him having a real say in this qualifying final.

He was a tryscorer in a losing effort against the Sharks at AAMI Park in round 10, and there’s every chance he can get over the top of the same opposition here.

Handicap 3-way: Storm -10 @ 21/20

Craig Bellamy’s side have proved their class in close contests so often this season, but seven of their last eight victories came by margins of 10 points or more.

When they really want to turn on the quality, they can. And while the Sharks have also sorts of tools in their armoury – not least Nicho Hynes if he’s on his game – I just don’t see Melbourne not putting them to the sword and giving themselves a week off.

The handicap markets are varied, and part of me wants to go all-out and back the Storm against a 16-point handicap at 9/5. But I’ll play it slightly on the safe side and go for the home side giving up a 10-point start at 21/20 and the implied 48.8% probability.

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