Uruguay vs Paraguay Prediction: La Celeste to seal Suarez’s national team career with a win

Uruguay will be looking to keep up their positive start to the South American 2026 World Cup qualification campaign when they host Paraguay at the Estadio Centenario on Saturday (00:30 BST).

Read below for my Uruguay vs Paraguay prediction and all of the latest team news, including several Copa America-related suspensions for the hosts, ahead of this clash in Montevideo.

Team News

Uruguay's 2024 Copa America semi-final defeat to Colombia in July was costly in more ways than one. After the conclusion of the match, which Los Cafeteros won 1-0 thanks to a strike from Jefferson Lerma, several Uruguay players became embroiled in some unseemly scenes with Colombian supporters.

Uruguay players said they entered the stands to defend their families, but South American football body Conmebol subsequently dished out suspensions to five players. Liverpool striker Darwin Nunez has been hit the hardest with a five-game ban, closely followed by Tottenham Hotspur midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur (four), while a trio of defenders - Napoli's Mathias Olivera, Barcelona's Ronald Araujo, and Atletico Madrid's Jose Maria Gimenez - will miss three games each.

Araujo is a long-term injury absentee anyway, but La Celeste head coach Marcelo Bielsa is now missing five key players through suspension, with Nunez arguably the biggest miss.

Matias Vina, Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Federico Vinas and Nicolas de la Cruz are also out of the squad due to injury issues.

Wolverhampton Wanderers central defender Santiago Bueno could profit from the suspensions of Araujo, Gimenez and Olivera.

However, new Manchester United midfielder Manuel Ugarte hasn't played since starting Uruguay's third-place victory over Canada in the Copa America semi-finals and may be deployed from the bench to help build up his fitness.

Luis Suarez recently announced his retirement from international football, with Saturday's qualifier in Montevideo set to be his last for his country. With Nunez out, the Inter Miami striker could be handed the start he desperately craves.

Football Odds

Paraguay's Copa America campaign was disastrous as they lost all three group games against Colombia (1-2), Brazil (1-4) and Costa Rica (1-2). Julio Enciso, Omar Alderete and Ramon Sosa were their scorers in the USA and the trio are all set to start on Saturday, the latter having just made his Premier League debut for Nottingham Forest after joining the East Midlands club from Talleres Cordoba during the summer.

Newcastle United winger Miguel Almiron and former West Ham United defender Fabian Balbuena are other notable names set to be included in Argentine Gustavo Alfaro's first starting XI as Paraguay head coach.

Uruguay vs Paraguay Odds

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Despite their long list of absentees, Uruguay have been installed as 2/5 favourites in Montevideo - perhaps not surprising considering Paraguay haven't beaten their South American rivals since October 2007, losing six out of 10 since. La Celeste's implied win probability on Saturday is 71.4%, while odds of 13/2 make La Albirroja's 13.3%.

The draw is available at 3/1, both teams to score at 5/4, and over 2.5 total goals at 11/10.

Suarez is 13/10 favourite to net anytime and is 7/2 to strike first on his farewell appearance, while Alex Arce is considered Paraguay's most likely anytime scorer at 5/1.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Uruguay & Yes @ 3/1

Uruguay have kept clean sheets in each of their last three World Cup qualifiers, beating Brazil (2-0) and Bolivia (3-0) in Montevideo either side of a shock 0-2 victory over the reigning World Cup and Copa America champions in Argentina. La Celeste also shut out two of their opponents - Bolivia (5-0) and the USA (1-0) - in the group stage of the 2024 Copa America and kept a third clean sheet of the tournament in the quarter-finals against Brazil.

However, defenders Araujo, Olivera, Gimenez and Vina all played prominent roles in the USA under Bielsa, yet none of the quartet are available for Saturday's match, while defensive midfielder Ugarte hasn't played a minute of football for nearly two months.

Paraguay could prey on their opponents' defensive vulnerability, with the likes of Enciso and Almiron more than capable of causing problems when on song. La Albirroja have endured difficulties in front of goal in World Cup qualification, scoring just once across six games (in a 1-0 home win against Bolivia), but they appeared to address those woes in the summer by netting once in each of their three group games.

The visitors could help themselves to a goal in Montevideo, but I'm still backing La Celeste to emerge with all three points. Regulars such as Nahitan Nandez, Federico Valverde and Maximiliano Araujo are all still available to Bielsa, while record goalscorer Suarez will be desperate to go out with a bang on his final game for Uruguay.

Anytime Scorer - Federico Valverde @ 11/4

Real Madrid midfielder Valverde scored just three times for his club side last season, a disappointing return after the 26-year-old struck 12 times in the 2022/23 campaign.

However, he is already off the mark for the new season, netting Los Blancos' opener in their 2-0 Uefa Super Cup victory over Atalanta on August 14 before firing his first 2024/25 La Liga goal against Real Valladolid 11 days later.

Valverde has seven goals in 62 senior caps for Uruguay and he found the net once at the 2024 Copa America, scoring Uruguay's third in their 5-0 thrashing of Bolivia.

With Nunez suspended, it's on the likes of Valverde to step up and assume some of the goalscoring responsibility, something he is more than capable of doing, in my opinion.

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