Italian Grand Prix 2024 Predictions: Lando’s time to dominate

Formula One returns this weekend with the Italian Grand Prix, and there has already been a bit of drama at Monza. The safety car spun off and crashed into a barrier during a testing lap, while in other news, Renault’s motorsport employees are set to go on strike in protest of the decision to end the company’s Formula One engine programme next year.

We will also have a new driver in the pits as Williams replaced Logan Sargeant with 21-year-old Argentine Franco Colapinto. But, let’s focus on the action on the track this weekend, and below you can find my Italian Grand Prix 2024 Predictions.

This weekend is all about Lando Norris in my opinion, and this could be the final chance to squeeze some value out of backing him to dominate a race weekend. He was on pole and won the race at the Dutch Grand Prix, despite another slow start that saw him lose first place to home favourite Max Verstappen off the line. 

Now, Lando’s starts have been a real issue. He simply can’t get the power down early enough and always seems to lose ground from a standstill start. Interestingly, his reaction time of 0.28 seconds to the lights was exactly the same as Verstappen in Zandvoort, yet his car seemed to struggle to get up to speed. 

It’s worth keeping in mind before we go all out and back Norris, but it isn’t enough to put me off. In fact, the way he responded to losing first place in that way makes me even more confident that he will not only win the Italian Grand Prix, but go on to win the Drivers’ World Championship.

Italian Grand Prix Odds

That’s right, for the first time this season I am calling the winner of the big one, and I’m leaning in favour of the young Brit. Norris, on Verstappen’s home circuit, lost first place, and then came back and beat him by a whopping 22 seconds. It’s been the first time this season that there has been an obvious pace difference between the two cars and now it seems difficult for the three-time world champion to match. 

Worryingly for Verstappen, he has now failed to win any of the last five races and although he is still in contention for race wins, I think he is now second-best, and his championship lead is shrinking. The gap is now 70 points, and with nine races left, Norris will have to be almost perfect to close it. But I can see it happening. 

I think another dominant victory here will start to get people excited, especially if Verstappen fails to finish second. That gap can quickly close and Norris will have his eyes on the prize. First up though, he has to take the chequered flag in Monza, and I think it will be somewhat of a formality. He is also the favourite to be the fastest qualifier, but I wouldn’t back him to be leading by turn one! We’ll go for a Lando hat-trick this week. Pole, race win, Driver’s Championship.