BMW Championship 2024 FRL Tips: Three to go low on Thursday

The BMW Championship begins in Colorado tomorrow and here, Jamie Worsley takes a look at who can go low at Castle Pines Golf Club in round one.

Here are his BMW Championship FRL Tips...

Our field of 50 players will tee off in pairs off the first tee, with all starting within a little over a four-hour timeframe. These bunched times, combined with a weather forecast that is predicting fairly benign conditions throughout the day, means that we can pick freely across Thursday’s tee times to find our first-round leader.

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1 pt Alex Noren ew (1/4 5 places) @ 45/1

Start time: 09:30

Alex Noren has been one of the best first-round scorers on tour all season and as a player with more winning experience at altitude than just about anyone else in this field, he can make a quick start this week.

The Swede has been in good form all year, missing just three cuts in 20 starts and recording 12 top-25 finishes. The latest of which came when he finished 12^th in The Open three starts ago.

These results have often had their foundations in strong starts, and he ranks 4^th on tour in round one scoring this year. We’ve seen this on show in recent efforts, as he sat inside the top-8 after round one of the Scottish Open, Open Championship and at the Olympics over his last four starts.

Noren has won both the Nedbank Challenge and Omega European Masters on the DP World Tour at altitude and finished inside the top-3 at the Shriners Open and Barracuda Championship on the PGA Tour.

Sat at 45^th in the FedExCup, he needs a very good week to spring inside that top-30 at the end of this week. He can rely on those experiences in similar playing conditions to get his week off to the best possible start.

1 pt Eric Cole ew (1/4 5 places) @ 50/1

Start time: 09:30

Eric Cole has rediscovered his form over the last couple of months and shooting low rounds for fun during this time, he is in hot enough scoring form to take the lead at the end of day one.

Cole arrested a poor run of form by finishing 6^th in the Rocket Mortgage Classic six starts ago and hasn’t looked back, making each of his next five cuts and recording two further top-10s, when finishing 7^th in the John Deere Classic and Wyndham Championship.

He comes into this week after finishing 18^th in the St Jude Championship. For which he has a superb closing 63 (the joint-lowest round of the week) on Sunday to thank for moving him inside the top-50 in the FedExCup and into this week’s field.

It was a similar story in his previous start, as he shot the lowest round of the day in round four of the Wyndham Championship, with a 63. He found a round of 64 in the second round of the Scottish Open two starts prior to that and in his two top-10s in the John Deere Classic and Rocket Mortgage Classic, he opened with rounds of 62 and 66 respectively to sit inside the top-5 after round one.

Cole showed an ability to play at altitude in last year’s Shriners Open, finishing 3^rd and fired a 62 in round four – another joint-lowest round of the week. Much like Noren, he needs another strong showing to have any chance of making it to East Lake and with confidence high after his finish at TPC Southwind, he can make a positive start in Colorado.

0.75 pts Matthieu Pavon ew (1/4 5 places) @ 70/1

Start time: 08:25

Matthieu Pavon is the outsider of the field in this market, this despite finishing 2^nd in the same market last week. With some positive experience of playing at altitude he looks good value to go one better at Castle Pines GC.

Pavon’s breakthrough in the Farmers Insurance Open was one of the stories of the early part of the year on the PGA Tour, and he’s shown that to be no fluke over subsequent starts. He’s particularly performed well in the majors this year, finishing 5^th in the US Open and 12^th on his Masters debut.

He found the going tough at Le Golf National, finishing 58^th, something I’m happy to put down to the occasion of performing on that stage in front of home fans. He looked much better last week, especially in round one, as he fired a 65 to sit 2^nd after 18 holes, and though struggling in the middle rounds, it was a positive to see him finish well with a 68.

Pavon has plenty of experience of playing at altitude and has twice finished inside the top-20 in the Nedbank Challenge on the DPWT, most recently finishing 15^th last year. He’s in a good spot to make it to the Tour Championship, sat in 20^th in the FedExCup, but that could all change if those behind him start well. Therefore, he’ll want to begin positively himself to give him that cushion within the top-30.

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