Cognizant Classic 2024 Tips: We’re sticking with Mitchell in Florida

The PGA Tour starts its East Coast Swing on Thursday at the Cognizant Classic. Golf Tipster Jamie Worsley is back with another of his famed previews, as well as six each-way selections ranging from 33/1 to 125/1.

The PGA Tour’s detour to Mexico last week saw two rookies slugging it out in another eventful final round for a breakthrough tour win. Jake Knapp had produced an effortlessly superb ball-striking performance over the opening three rounds to open up a four-shot leading going into Sunday’s final round, though it is never easy closing out, especially on the top tier of pro golf.

After bogeying two of his first three holes on a windy final day, he was caught by fellow mulletted rookie, Sami Valimaki towards the end of the front nine, and looked all at sea with the ball-striking that had served him so well over the opening 54 holes.

However, Knapp composed himself admirably down the stretch with no more blots on the scorecard and a solo back-nine birdie at 14 was enough to see him to a two-shot win for a first PGA Tour success.

The tour now begins its East Coast Swing, as we start a four-week stretch of events in Florida with the newly-named Cognizant Classic (formerly Honda Classic) at PGA National.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

This event was first staged in 1972 and after spending the last thirty years associated with Honda, Cognizant have stepped in to take over the role of sponsor from this year. It continues to be played at PGA National’s Champion course, as it has in every renewal since 2007.

Tom Weiskopf was the first winner in 1972, getting the better of Jack Nicklaus. Nicklaus then went on to win in 1977; successfully defending the title the following year to become the first two-time winner.

A further three players have become multiple Cognizant Classic winners since then: Johnny Miller (1980, 1983), Mark Calcavecchia (1987, 1998) and Padraig Harrington (2005, 2015).

Other notable winners includes Lee Trevino (1973), Vijay Singh (1999), Ernie Els (2008) and Rory McIlroy (2012). This is representative of how international the tournament has become, with ten of the last sixteen winners coming from outside the United States.

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Chris Kirk (-14, playoff); runner-up: Eric Cole (-14)
• 2022 – Winner: Sepp Straka (-10); runner-up: Shane Lowry (-9)
• 2021 – Winner: Matt Jones (-12); runner-up: Brandon Hagy (-7)
• 2020 – Winner: Sungjae Im (-6); runner-up: Mackenzie Hughes (-5)
• 2019 – Winner: Keith Mitchell (-9); runners-up: Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka (-8)

Chris Kirk converted a 54-hole lead to win at PGA National last year, claiming the fifth of his six PGA Tour titles in a playoff over 2023’s Rookie of the Year, Eric Cole. Kirk returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

The Champion course at PGA National was originally designed by Tom and George Fazio in 1981, however Jack Nicklaus has been tweaking with the venue for the best part of twenty years now and it has essentially become his design.

Prior to taking up hosting duties of this event, the course was the setting of the 1983 Ryder Cup, which saw the US team come out on top. Whilst it was also the scene of Larry Nelson’s 1987 PGA Championship victory.

The course has been slightly altered since last year’s renewal, with fairway lines widened and the 10^th hole switched to a 530-yard par 5, as opposed to a monstrous 508-yard par 4. It will now play as a par 71 instead of a par 70 and measures 7147 yards; possessing 11x par 4s (365-479 yards), 4x par 3s (175-226 yards) and 3x par 5s (530-556 yards).

There are two primary factors that come into play at PGA National: wind and water. The course is situated by the Atlantic Coast and as a largely exposed venue, wind is often an issue; made all the more problematic with routing that sees the majority of holes change direction, requiring players to hit shots into ever-changing winds.

Water is in-play at no fewer than fifteen holes. This includes each of the last six, which is home to the famous ‘Bear Trap’ (named after Nicklaus) for which the event has become synonymous; a series of three nerve-inducing holes from 15-17 where water is a prominently fiendish feature.

Take away the water and this brutish course is somewhat ordinary. It is mostly flat, with fairways that whilst starting off relatively narrow, increase in width as you move around the layout. However, they are strategically bunkered and some narrow the further up the fairway you go; forcing players to lay back and meaning most of the field will be hitting approaches from similar spots on certain holes.

The speedy bermudagrass greens are large in size but still rank as some of the toughest to find, possessing the seventh-lowest greens-in-regulation percentage on tour over the last five years. That combination of wind and water obviously plays a huge part in these numbers, though they are further protected by run-off areas and often large bunkers.

These sloping, tiered and often angled putting surfaces are tough to scramble around but even more difficult to putt on, ranking 4^th for putting difficulty since 2019. It is simply a course that strongly examines every area of your game.

This brutal examination has long made PGA National one of the most demanding tests on the PGA Tour, averaging a winning score of -9.4 in the last ten renewals as a par 70, this despite having two (now three) very reachable par 5s and several shorter par 4s. That extra par 5 will naturally make scores a touch lower this year (not accounting for potential conditions) but it should still be a stressful week in Florida.

THE WEATHER

The forecast isn’t quite as worrying as it occasionally is here but there’s still enough wind about to cause problems. It is set to be warm and bright prior to the start of the event and continuing throughout tournament play, with a small chance of storms on Sunday.

A gentle 10mph breeze is going to be a constant, gusting at around 18mph; though this could be significantly more difficult in the second round, with gusts at over 25mph currently predicted.

Weather forecasts can change swiftly for these coastal events and it is always worth considering players who perform well in windy conditions here, regardless of what is being forecast.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Proximity 125-200 yards
• Greens-in-Regulation

You’ve got to do it all well at PGA National but it’s ball-striking that carries most importance. The course doesn’t discriminate against anyone, whether you’re a steady fairways and greens type, or a more explosive ball-striker who is able to open up with driver in the more generous back-nine fairways, you need to have the long game firing.

Iron play has proved especially important among winners and their nearest challengers over the most recent renewals.

Chris Kirk looked good across most areas when winning last year, but excelled into the greens, ranking 7^th in approach and 7^th in greens-in-regulation. With five of the top 10 ranking inside the top 10 in each of those respective areas.

Seven of the top 8 ranked inside the top 10 for GIR in 2022, including winner, Sepp Straka, who led the field in this area. Whilst his closest challengers, Shane Lowry and Kurt Kitayama ranked 2^nd and 3^rd in approach respectively.

Matt Jones ranked 5^th in GIR and 7^th in approach when winning in 2021; Sungjae Im ranked 2^nd and 5^th in these areas when taking the title in 2020; and of the four winners prior to him, three were top 7 in approach, including 2016 winner Adam Scott and 2018 champion, Justin Thomas, who each ranked 2^nd.

Additionally, it used to be that those who excelled in approaches between 150-200 yards held sway in this event. However, whilst those distances are still important, with the ever-increasing length on show, shorter approaches from 125-150 yards are starting to catch up in frequency. Therefore, those longer hitters who show quality in this range are of interest.

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy

Though not as important as approach play, few players have been able to win or contend here with a poor driving week. Each of the last eight winners has ranked inside the top 25 off-the-tee when winning and what’s more, many have found plenty of fairways too.

Chris Kirk ranked a solid 15^th OTT when winning last year but he was preceded by an even more driver-reliant winner in 2022, Sepp Straka; who ranked 1^st both OTT and in driving accuracy, whilst his nearest challenger, Shane Lowry ranked 3^rd and 4^th in those respective areas.

Matt Jones in 2021 and Sungjae Im in 2020 also displayed a similar skillset, with Jones ranking 10^th OTT and 17^th in driving accuracy; Im ranking 11^th OTT and 15^th in driving accuracy.

This isn’t to say bombers can’t enjoy success here, we’ve seen the likes of Rory McIlroy, Keith Mitchell and Justin Thomas all taste success in the event. But it’s important to be in relative control of that power or else many drives will meet a watery end.

• SG: Around-the-Greens/Scrambling

Though it should obviously be treated as a positive if someone is proven on quick bermudagrass surfaces, with greens so challenging to hit I’d rather put my short-game focus on those who excel in getting it up and down.

Sepp Straka led the field in scrambling when winning in 2022; Matt Jones ranked 1^st around-the-greens in 2021 and Sungjae Im ranked top 5 ATG and in scrambling in 2020. Keith Mitchell was top 10 in both of those areas, whilst Justin Thomas and Adam Scott ranked 2^nd and 1^st in scrambling respectively.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Arnold Palmer Invitational (Bay Hill)

Though situated a good bit further north and more inland than PGA National, Bay Hill is another Floridian course that poses a major championship-like test on bermudagrass. Fairways are a little tougher to find but it possesses similar GIR and scrambling percentages, whilst its similarly large and fast greens rank closely in putting difficulty.

Notable correlating form:

Sungjae Im:

Cognizant (1^st) / API (3^rd, 3^rd)

Mark Wilson:

Cognizant (1^st) / API (3^rd)

Matt Jones:

Cognizant (1^st, 4^th) / API (3^rd)

Rickie Fowler:

Cognizant (1^st, 2^nd) / API (3^rd)

Keith Mitchell:

Cognizant (1^st) / API (5^th, 6^th)

Chris Kirk:

Cognizant (1^st) / API (5^th, 8^th)

Kurt Kitayama:

Cognizant (3^rd) / API (1^st)

Morgan Hoffman:

Cognizant (2^nd) / API (4^th)

John Rollins:

Cogizant (2^nd) / API (5^th)

Sony Open (Waialae Country Club)

The coastal Waialae CC features large bermudagrass greens, is of a similar length to this week’s course and with wind a detrimental factor, it has developed strong form-ties with PGA National.

Notable correlating form:

Mark Wilson:

Cognizant (1^st) / Sony (1^st)

Russell Henley:

Cognizant (1^st, 3^rd) / Sony (1^st, 2^nd, 4^th)

Chris Kirk:

Cognizant (1^st) / Sony (2^nd, 2^nd, 3^rd)

Rory Sabbatini:

Cognizant (1^st) / Sony (2^nd, 2^nd)

Michael Thompson:

Cognizant (1^st) / Sony (5^th, 6^th)

Keith Mitchell:

Cognizant (1^st) / Sony (7^th)

Ryan Palmer:

Cognizant (2^nd, 4^th) / Sony (1^st, 4^th)

Brendan Steele:

Cognizant (3^rd, 4^th) / Sony (2^nd, 4^th)

Byeong Hun An:

Cognizant (4^th, 5^th) / Sony (2^nd)

Gary Woodland:

Cognizant (2^nd, 5^th) / Sony (3^rd, 6^th)

RBC Heritage (Harbour Town Golf Links)

Harbour Town is another course with links to Jack Nicklaus, who operated as a consultant to Pete Dye on the project. The coastal venue has a much more claustrophobic feel and tiny greens in comparison to PGA National, though it is a place where quality approach players usually excel; has a bermudagrass base throughout and with wind management often a necessity, correlating form is plentiful.

Notable correlating form:

Sepp Straka:

Cognizant (1^st, 5^th) / Heritage (3^rd)

Camillo Villegas:

Cognizant (1^st, 2^nd) / Heritage (5^th, 7^th, 9^th)

Russell Henley:

Cognizant (1^st, 3^rd) / Heritage (6^th, 9^th)

Michael Thompson:

Cognizant (1^st) / Heritage (8^th, 10^th)

Boo Weekley:

Cognizant (2^nd) / Heritage (1^st, 1^st)

Wesley Bryan:

Cognizant (4^th) / Heritage (1^st)

CT Pan:

Cognizant (3^rd) / Heritage (1^st)

Russell Knox:

Cognizant (2^nd, 3^rd) / Heritage (2^nd)

Shane Lowry:

Cognizant (2^nd, 5^th) / Heritage (3^rd, 3^rd)

Luke List:

Cognizant (2^nd) / Heritage (3^rd)

RSM Classic (Sea Island Resort)

As an exposed venue situated by the coast, with large bermudagrass greens and lots of water in-play, the RSM Classic at Sea Island can offer further clues.

Notable correlating form:

Chris Kirk:

Cognizant (1^st) / RSM (1^st, 4^th, 4^th)

Camillo Villegas:

Cognizant (1^st, 2^nd) / RSM (2^nd, 6^th)

Michael Thompson:

Cognizant (1^st) / RSM (3^rd)

Russell Henley:

Cognizant (1^st, 3^rd) / RSM (4^th, 6^th)

Tyler Duncan:

Cognizant (3^rd) / RSM (1^st, 3^rd)

Mackenzie Hughes:

Cognizant (2^nd) / RSM (1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd)

Luke List:

Cognizant (2^nd) / RSM (4^th)

Memorial Tournament (Muirfield Village)

Muirfield Village is a Jack Nicklaus design that whilst having many difference with PGA National, plays surprisingly similarly. Both courses have some of the most difficult greens to find on tour and are hugely challenging on and around those putting surfaces. With that, approach play has been a key ingredient to success in each event and they have some strong correlating form as a result.

Notable correlating form:

Rickie Fowler:

Cognizant (1^st, 2^nd) / Memorial (2^nd, 2^nd)

Rory Sabbatini:

Cognizant (1^st) / Memorial (2^nd)

Mark Wilson:

Cognizant (1^st) / Memorial (3^rd, 7^th)

Chris Kirk:

Cognizant (1^st) / Memorial (4^th)

Russell Henley:

Cognizant (1^st, 3^rd) / Memorial (6^th, 7^th)

Billy Horschel:

Cognizant (4, 8^th) / Memorial (1^st)

Byeong Hun An:

Cognizant (4^th, 5^th) / Memorial (2^nd)

Ryan Palmer:

Cognizant (2^nd, 4^th) / Memorial (2^nd)

Chase Seiffert:

Cognizant (3^rd) / Muirfield Village (4^th)

Gary Woodland:

Cognizant (2^nd, 5^th) / Memorial (4^th, 5^th, 6^th)

THE FIELD

2012 Cognizant Classic winner, Rory McIlroy returns to PGA National for the first time since 2018 and is the star attraction as the world #2. Matt Fitzpatrick also makes a belated return here, playing for the first time since 2017 and as the world #9, he’s the second of only two players from inside the world’s top 10 in attendance.

There are a further three players from inside the top 25 and seventeen from the top 50. These include #16, Tom Kim, making his debut in the event and #46, Justin Rose makes his first start in a month and only his third appearance at PGA National in the last ten years.

Rory is one of ten former winners set to tee it up, joined by Chris Kirk (2023), Sepp Straka (2022), Sungjae Im (2020), Keith Mitchell (2019), Rickie Fowler (2017), Padraig Harrington (2015, 2005), Russell Henley (2014), Camillo Villegas (2010) and Matt Kuchar (2002).

Rasmus Hojgaard makes his debut on a sponsors exemption; Matthieu Pavon is back after a brief pause following his breakthrough West Coast run; and course specialists, Daniel Berger and Gary Woodland continue their promising comebacks from injury at this familiar haunt.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Rory McIlroy 7/1, Cameron Young 22/1, Matt Fitzpatrick 25/1, Russell Henley 25/1, Eric Cole 30/1, Tom Kim 30/1

McIlroy is the clear favourite here but has struggled to get his irons firing after heading to the US, making him unappealing at 13/2.

The event looks wide open outside of the Northern Irishman and after an excellent ball-striking week in Mexico, I’ve been tempted to go back in on proven PGA National performer, Keith Mitchell this week.

1.5 pts Keith Mitchell each way (1/5 - 6 places) - 33/1 

Mitchell has enjoyed a steady start to the season, making all bar one of six cuts and finishing inside the top 10 at The AmEx. Though nowhere has he hit the ball better for the entire week as he did in his 19^th-place finish in last week’s Mexico Open.

He was +3 thru three holes of his first round as he bogeyed each of those opening three holes but rallied well to hit the top 20; a performance that included a 65 in round three.

Mitchell especially excelled with his irons there, ranking 2^nd in approach and 4^th in greens-in-regulation. Complimenting that with a top-10 driving performance he ranked as the second-best ball-striker in the field behind winner, Jake Knapp.

That approach performance was even more encouraging when we factor in that it was his best four-round display in the area since 2018 and it is an area he has occasionally struggled in. Having said that, he has been gaining strokes with these clubs all season, ranking 31^st overall and is 4^th in GIR. With his powerful but controlled driving game, he looks in an excellent place to make that long game count now back on his preferred bermudagrass.

He indeed showed his suitability to this layout in 2019 as he beat the duo of Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler into 2^nd place, and after a couple of more subdued efforts he recorded a second top 10 in 2023, finishing 9^th.

Two top 6s at Bay Hill and a 7^th in the Sony Open act as further sources of encouragement and complete an enticing profile in relation to this week’s challenge for Mitchell.

1.25 pts Sepp Straka each way (1/5 - 8 places) - 40/1

Sepp Straka is often a player who looks a touch overpriced and revisiting a place in which he’s finished 1^st and 5^th in the last two seasons, this once again looks to be the case.

A strong finish to 2023 saw Straka double his PGA Tour trophy tally with a victory in the John Deere Classic, after which he followed with an impressive but distant runner-up finish in the Open Championship.

Performances have been promising at the start of this year, finishing 12^th in The Sentry on the first start of the year and following a disappointing missed cut at Torrey Pines with a 26^th-place finish at Pebble Beach. Though missing the cut last-time-out at the Genesis Invitational, he only missed by one and looked in good ball-striking form over the first two rounds.

He’s been solid with the driver so far, gaining strokes on every start and ranks top 25 in GIR. Though the putter has looked a little suspect, he now arrives at a course where he’s putted well in recent years.

Straka looked especially good on these greens when winning the event in 2022, ranking 4^th. He was solid with the putter here again last year when finishing 5^th, which has now seen him shoot a round in the 60s here in each of his last seven. A 3^rd in the RBC Heritage and two top 20s at Muirfield Village strengthen his already strong case on this Jack Nicklaus design.

1 pt Justin Rose each way (1/5 - 8 places) - 50/1 

Justin Rose made a steady if unspectacular start to this season but produced his best performance so far when 11^th at Pebble Beach four weeks ago. With some excellent past results here and a sense that his ball-striking isn’t all that far away, I’m taking him to step up that form again this week.

Rose finished 40^th in The Sentry in the opening event of the year and followed with mid-leaderboard finishes in the Sony Open and at Torrey Pines, before finishing 11^th at Pebble.

The short game has looked in fine shape across those starts and he’s driven the ball solidly but on paper, his approach play looks severely lacking. However on closer inspection there are positives in there.

After three poor rounds in approach to start The Sentry, Rose produced one of the best eighteen holes in approach that week, helping him on his way to a final-round 61. He followed that with a solid round in approach to begin the week at the Sony Open, though it deteriorated over the rest of the week. Then, on his last two starts in California, he gained strokes in approach in three of his five recorded rounds.

Consistency is the thing which has been absent in this area and coming into 2024 off the back of a return to the type of approach play that he was known for in his prime, I’m more than happy to take him in the hope he finds that consistency this week.

Rose has only played here twice in the last ten years, missing the cut in 2015 and 2020. However, prior to that his form in this event was excellent, recording three top 5s in 2010, 2012 and 2013. A bunch of correlating form which includes a win at Muirfield Village and runner-up finishes in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Sony Open bolster his claims, and if he can keep the irons firing for four straight rounds he’d have a great chance this week.

1 pt Rickie Fowler each way (1/5 - 8 places) - 60/1

Rickie Fowler has been in subdued form at the start of this year. However, he was much improved when we last saw him at Riviera and as a past winner of this event, this Florida resident can kick on again at PGA National.

There was little to celebrate about Fowler’s start to this season. He finished 56^th of 59 players in the season-opening The Sentry, following with missed cuts in The AmEx and Phoenix Open, along with a 47^th at Pebble Beach; generally doing little well.

He looked significantly better two weeks ago in the Genesis Invitational, finishing 35^th and shooting zero rounds over par. He hit the ball reasonably well over the opening two rounds and though it slipped a little over the weekend, there was enough to suggest he is moving in the right direction.

Fowler’s return to winning form last year was engineered by quality in all areas but he shone brightest in approach, ranking 7^th; as a top-50 player from 125-175 yards and top 20 from 175-200, he should be comfortable with the majority of approach distances.

He has an excellent record here, recording finishes of 6^th, 7^th and 13^th before winning the event by a convincing four strokes in 2017; then finishing runner-up to Mitchell in 2019. He’s putted these greens well, even in his non-contending years.

Correlating form of two runner-up finishes in the Memorial Tournament and a 3^rd at Bay Hill can be nothing but a positive and I’m hoping this beginning of the East Coast Swing will help Fowler improve again at PGA National.

1 pt Christiaan Bezuidenhout each way (1/5 - 8 places) - 55/1 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout’s eye-catching start to the season has been aided by some outstanding approach play and if able to keep those irons sharp this week, he can upgrade his solid Cognizant Classic form.

Bezuidenhout signed off 2023 in good form on the DPWT, finishing 3^rd in the Alfred Dunhill Championship and hit the ground running at the start of 2024, finishing 2^nd in The AmEx on his first start.

He did miss the cut next time out in the Farmers Insurance Open but has bounced back with three consecutive top 30s, finishing 20^th at Pebble Beach, 28^th in the Phoenix Open and 24^th in the Genesis Invitational on his latest start.

The South African has impressed in approach across each of those starts and ranks 3^rd at this early point of the season, looking as good with the clubs as he ever has and across all distances. With a strong short game - which includes a proven ability on bermudagrass greens - and an accuracy-dependent driving game, this is a course that should suit.

He has certainly displayed his potential here in the last two years, finishing 25^th in 2022 and 42^nd last year, looking good on the greens in both starts. Ultimately, the only thing lacking in each of those previous visits was quality in approach; something I’m hoping he can put right this week with the form he’s in with the clubs.

Three of Christiaan’s best PGA Tour performances on the PGA Tour have come on bermudagrass, including a 7^th in the Arnold Palmer in 2021; a place where he has also recorded two top 20s in three further visits. Solid form in the Memorial Tournament, RBC Heritage and Sony Open provide added encouragement.

1 pt Lee Hodges each way (1/5 - 8 places) - 125/1

Lee Hodges was an emphatic seven-shot winner of the 3M Open last year for his first PGA Tour victory. His results hadn’t been great following that but after finishing 24^th on his latest start at Riviera, he looks to have found form, and is nicely priced to add to an already attractive record at PGA National.

Hodges missed three of his first five cuts of this year and finished outside the top 50 in the other two but those performances weren’t totally without promise, as he’d looked reasonably strong in approach.

Two weeks ago at Riviera, he was finally able to match it with some quality on the greens and with the driver, which brought about that much better result, as he shot three rounds in the 60s. This was much more representative of the standard he was showing last year.

Hodges finished 9^th on his debut here in 2022 and followed up with a 14^th last year, when he shot two 67s over the weekend; both times putting these greens well. His 12^th-place finish at Muirfield Village on debut last year shows further his suitability to Nicklaus designs and if able to replicate the quality of ball-striking that we saw at the Genesis and match it with that level of putting he usually displays here, he’d look a lively three-figure outsider.

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