Newcastle Falcons vs Bristol Bears Prediction: Bears can maul Falcons to pull clear

Friday night throws up a battle at the bottom end of the Premiership table as the Bristol Bears make the long trip to Kingston Park to face Newcastle Falcons.

Bristol’s three wins from eight games sees them occupy eighth place in the standing heading into this week’s fixtures, while Newcastle are rock bottom without a win to their name in the league this season.

It’s been a torrid start for the Falcons in the Premiership and, after two defeats in the European Challenge Cup in the last two weeks, it’s hard to see things getting better against the Bears.

Match odds

Despite being on home soil, Newcastle are the 13/5 underdogs to claim their first league victory of the season on Friday night. Visitors Bristol are available at 3/10 favourites for the win, while a tie at Kingston Park is currently at 22/1.

Team news

Starting with the hosts, the Falcons welcome back Argentina winger Mateo Carreras as he’s recovered from a hamstring injury to feature in this one.
Flanker Gus Pepper has also recovered from a thigh injury to return to the back-row, while centre Jordan Holgate is set to make his Falcons debut.

It’s a landmark game for Newcastle lock Sebastian de Chaves, as he prepares to make his 50th appearance for the north east outfit. As for Bristol, England international Kyle Sinckler will also be making his 50th appearance for the Bears at prop, as head coach Pat Lam makes just one change from the side that overcame Gloucester in Round 8.

England prop Ellis Genge is ruled out through injury, so Jake Woolmore steps into the front-row.

Bristol Bears -7.5 handicap @ 20/21

Newcastle have had issues both with and without the ball this season, as their side filled with academy products has struggled with the level of the Premiership.
Looking at a shocking points difference of -148, Newcastle have scored the fewest points in the Premiership (117) and conceded the most (265).

Conceding an average of just over 33 points per game makes it incredibly difficult to win matches at this level for Newcastle and Bristol have enough power up front and attacking quality in the backs to fall on the right side of the handicap here.

Scotland international Magnus Bradbury offers explosive power around the breakdown at No.8, while the likes of Virimi Vakatawa and Max Malins will be dangerous if given space out in the wide channels.

It’s hard to see Newcastle keeping this game tight, especially in the second half, at Kingston Park and Bristol should have little issue covering the -7.5 handicap on offer at 20/21.

Rugby Union betting tips, from Betfred Insights.