Reds vs Rebels Prediction: Back the Reds to win by a Dozen or Less

Our mid-morning Super Rugby on Sky Sports Action this Friday morning comes from Brisbane as the Queensland Reds and Melbourne Rebels face-off against one another from 10:35.

Our team have had a look at the betting markets and have previewed the encounter and pass on their best Reds vs Rebels predictions for the match...

A tight encounter is expected when the Melbourne Rebels travel to Suncorp Stadium to face Queensland Reds, with just three points separating the two sides in sixth and fifth place respectively.

The Reds have not had the happiest of times in front of their own fans in recent weeks, losing two of their last three home fixtures - although these defeats came against two clubs currently in the top three in the form of the Brumbies (20-19) and the Blues (41-34).

The hosts should therefore be confident in claiming victory over a Melbourne side that have suffered comprehensive defeats across their last two league fixtures - a 39-0 shutout defeat at Crusaders before a 38-11 home loss to the Blues.

Reds vs Rebels Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Reds vs Rebels market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Home advantage leaves the Reds as heavy favourites for this meeting at 1/6, whereas the Rebels are 5/1 to snatch a victory from Queensland.

The draw provides odds of 18/1 while under 58.5 total points can be backed at 10/11.

Team News

Reds head coach Les Kiss has made three changes to the 23-man matchday squad that edged to a 33-28 win at Crusaders last time out, with one change made to the starting XV.

Prop Sef Fa’agase comes into the scrum ahead of Peni Ravai - who drops to the bench - while Tate McDermott and James O’Connor are both named among the replacements, with Louis Werchon and Harry McLaughlin-Phillips omitted.

Tim Ryan scored a brace in their last Super Rugby outing and he keeps his place at left wing, while co-captain Liam Wright also maintains his starting position at flanker.

Rebels coach Kevin Foote also makes a handful of changes to the squad beaten by the Blues last week, with two new faces starting from the off amongst the backs.

Nick Jooste and Filipo Daugunu are paired together in the centre, with David Feliuai and Matt Proctor left out of the matchday squad entirely.

Jooste’s promotion to the starting line-up as well as Ethan Dobbins and Matt Gibbon’s omission from the bench sees three new names in the replacements in the form of prop Cabous Eloff, hooker Alex Mafi and outside back Glen Vaihu.

Reds win by 1-12 points inclusive @ 23/10

Both the Reds and the Rebels have struggled for form in recent weeks but home advantage could be the key to claiming victory for Queensland.

The Reds have won three of their five home matches this season while they have only lost one of their last six meetings with Melbourne at the Suncorp Stadium.

The Rebels have faced long-standing issues when playing away from their AAMI Park home, with just three wins registered across their last 14 on their travels - a run that stretches back to April 2022.

Melbourne could therefore struggle for victory again in this encounter but two of their last three visits to Queensland have seen the Rebels lose by 12 or fewer points, so there is hope that the visitors could make life difficult for the Reds.

Check out our other Rugby Union Betting Tips here.