Crusaders vs Reds Prediction: Saders momentum to continue

With many writing off the defending Champs, there are signs of a resurgence which the Reds should be wary of!

Our rugby union expert Alex Cox has previewed the Super Rugby clash starting at 5:35am BST on Saturday morning and shared his Crusaders vs Reds predictions.

Pressure on the Crusaders and Rob Penny, has eased after last week’s demolition of the Rebels has brought them back into contention of making the top-8. However tomorrow they face a plucky Reds side that will be frustrated after their final second loss to the Blues last week.

The Crusaders have an exceptional record against the Queenslanders, winning all the contests in Christchurch since 1999. After a remarkable start to the season, Crusaders have shown recent signs they are starting to get into 3^rd gear. With All Black experience returning to the side in Barrett and Havili we have seen less of the erratic Crusaders from early season and an element of more control and ruthlessness.

Les Kiss will know of the challenge that awaits his young Reds side this weekend. A Crusaders side with their tails up is a concerning prospect for every coach in world rugby, however this young Reds side has shown they aren’t prepared to take a step-back, pushing the Blues the whole game last week, drawing in Wellington earlier in the season and beating Chiefs in Brisbane. Without Lynagh though, I worry the game plan that the Crusaders will deploy will mean the Reds struggle to get a foot-hold in the game.

Team News

Crusaders

Rob Penny will be please with more cattle returning from injury. The latest returnee is a Welsh International on a long awaited debut. Up front though, will be Bower, McAlister and Newell. Captain Scott Barrett and Strange pair up at Lock – the former has made a significant impact since his return, although youngster Hannah deserves credit for his role during Barrett’s absence. The loose-trio of Grace, Blackadder and Lio-Willie have recently provided the go-forward the Crusaders had been looking for in earlier rounds.

Drummond gets the nod at 9 this week – leaving youngster Hotham on the bench – and he is partnering up with Havilli at fly-half this week. McLeod and Aumua are in the midfield, with the illusive Reece on one wing and the returning McNicholl on the other. Finally, Welsh International Leigh Halfpenny makes his debut at full-back, after getting injured before the start of the season.

Reds

Despite missing a few key players, it was the fringe players that stood up last week vs Blues and a number get the nod again in Christchurch. Ravai, Faessler and Toomaga-Allen will combine in the front-row, and with Uru still out, it’s Blyth and Smith that continue in the second-row. McReight returns this week, rejoining the familiar back-row alongside Wright and Wilson.

Reds are missing their first choice half-backs here, with McDermott (suspended) and Lynagh (hamstring injury) both unavailable. Thomas take the 9 jersey and Creighton will step in at fly-half. Paisami and Flook will be in the midfield, with Petaia another key player on the physio table currently. After his majestic debut last week, Ryan (AKA The Junkyard Dog) keeps his place on the wing with Grealy on the other side and Campbell and full-back.

Crusaders over 31.5 @ 4/5

The Crusaders were dialled in against the Rebels and I think we’ll see a similar performance tomorrow. With the games running out, the defending champions are running out of games to get the points they need to make the playoffs. Their squad depth was really tested in the first half of the season, but they have finally stocked up with some Internationals when it really matters.

The Reds have struggled only won 1 of their 4 games on the road and I think the disappointment of not getting up against the Blues in a close game last week could weigh heavy. With Reece and McNicholl in the wide channels, Crusaders have been breaking the line far more regularly and with better conditions forecasted in this early evening game, I think the Crusaders will push up close to 35 points.

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