Crusaders vs Blues Prediction: Blues to inflict more Crusader pain

The Blues are pushing for a 10^th straight win and it’s hard to make a case for this mediocre Crusaders side to stop them on Saturday (08:05, Sky Sports Action). The result of this New Zealand derby in Christchurch will have a big impact on how the season unfolds for each side.

A win for the underwhelming Crusaders gives them a slither of hope they can reach the playoffs, but a loss will end that dream and condemn the reigning Champions to one of their worst seasons in Super Rugby. At the other end of the table, a win would enable The Blues to leapfrog the Hurricanes back to the top of the table and cement a Top 2 spot with a week to spare, whilst a loss could leave the door open to the Brumbies.

The Crusaders have only won 2 of their 12 games this season, looking a shadow of their former selves. They have struggled in all facets of the game – from line-outs, to attacking patterns and some questionable defence at times. They have been slightly more competitive in Christchurch, with both of their wins coming at home but that is still an extremely poor return from 5 home games, given their own high standards.

Last week they did push the Brumbies close but were not able to see out the game, an issue they have not be able to overcome all season.

By contrast, The Blues are in exceptional form and are many people’s favourites to win the Title. They are on a 9 game winning streak and look formidable under Vern Cotter this season. In recent seasons, the Blues have not possessed a ruthless edge and often produced moments of madness, however Cotter seems to have instilled new levels of confidence that has seen them produce some brilliant performances.

Their pack has been untouchable this season, and I believe they will gain enough of a foothold up-front and in the gain-line collisions to win this game and cover the handicap.

Team News:  

Crusaders

Rob Penny is able to recall a few players this week, but will still be without All Black Scott Barrett. Moody, Taylor and Newell will be in the front row – with Williams fit enough to be listed on the bench this week. Shalfoon and Strange will pair up at Lock, leaving Grace, Blackadder and Lio-Willie in a back-row full of ball carriers.

The half-backs have been ever-changing this season and this week will be Hotham and Burke. Havili remains at inside center however after being named to start, Aumua is now injured and will be replayed by McLeod. Reece and Fihaki will be in the wide channels, with McNicholl responsible for the back-field.

Blues

After rotating last week vs Highlanders, Vern Cotter is able to recall his stars for this contest. Tu’ungafasi, Eklund and Ta’avao will combine up front, with Tuipulotu and Darry in the second-row. The back-row will be Ioane, Choat and Sotutu, which has a perfect balance of power and dynamism.

Christie is still unavailable, meaning Funaki will be at scrum-half and Plummer continues at fly-half are impressing both in game management and off the tee recently. Evans and Ioane will be the midfield duo and the back-three will be Lam, Tele’a and Perofeta – meaning Clarke drops out this week.

Bet reasoning

The Blues defence has been the cornerstone of their success this year, only allowing 187 points to be scored against them in 12 games, meaning an average of 15.6 points per game. This is due to a number of factors including defensive organisation, discipline, and scramble defence – all contributing to limit the opportunities teams get to accumulate points.

They have also been extremely good around the breakdown and the tight collisions, using the power of their pack to get the upper hand repeatedly. I see this pattern continuing this weekend as I don’t believe this Crusaders side have the tools to combat the Blues weapons.

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