Bath vs Saracens Prediction: Bath to edge Sarries at sold-out Rec

This top-four clash is taking place at a sold-out Rec Ground on Friday evening (19:45) under the lights. With Northampton looking likely to grab one of the two home semi-final spots, the result of this game could go a long way in determining who gets the other one.

Our rugby union expert Alex Cox has previewed Sunday's clash and shared his Bristol vs Newcastle Falcons predictions. 

After being knocked out of the Champions Cup by Exeter a few weeks ago, Bath travelled back down to Devon last weekend for revenge and got what they came for with a 12 point victory, to get their first away Premiership victory since November.

Despite their troubles on the road, their form in front of the Rec faithful has been exceptional, winning six out of seven Premiership games plus both of their European games. Losing their talisman in Russell is certainly a blow, but Bailey is more than competent and the Rec crowd will certainly get behind him.

Saracens put away Gloucester last week at the StoneX stadium, however that result has an asterisk next to it considering the Cherry and Whites fielded a second-string side.

Like Bath, it is Saracens’ home form that has kept them towards the top-end of the table, but they have struggled away from home, losing their last six away games in all competitions – including those two challenging visits to Bordeaux. They have a good side out but I think will struggle to overcome the home side under the lights.

Team News: 

Bath

Van Grann is able to pick a fairly settled side for this crucial game, although I am sure he’d prefer to have Finn Russell available, who is currently sidelined with a groin injury. The front-row will be made up of Obano, Annett and Stuart, with Roux and Ewels in the second-row behind them. Hill and Underhill will be on the flanks, with the former in fine form after some standout recent performances. Barbeary is a no.8 and completes the back-row

Spencer continues at scrum-half and it will be Bailey again covering fly-half. I expect to see Spencer using his left-boot often to help keep pressure off Bailey. Redpath was expected to be out injured this week but he’s fit enough to make the bench. Instead, it will be Ojomah who partners Lawrence in midfield. The back-three this week will be Muir, Cokanasiga and Gallagher.

Saracens

McCall has made five changes to the side that defeated Gloucester last week. Mawi, George and Judge combine together in the front-row, with the stalwart Itoje and his compatriot Isiekwe alongside him in the second-row. A ball-carrying back-row trio of Gonzalez, Earl and Willis will link up to cause as much disruption as possible!

Davies and Farrell stick together as half-backs, as do the centre pairing of Welshman Tompkins and Argentinian Cinti. Parton remains on the left-wing again this week, fresh after his hat-trick against Gloucester last week. Speedster Segun will be on the right-wing and Daly is picked at full-back.

Bath to win @ 13/10

Saracens have demonstrated they are still capable of producing high-level rugby but it’s been too inconsistent, and rarely occurs on the road to justify their favourite tag in this contest.

Russell’s absence will certainly have impacted the handicap and line, but I think there is still value on Bath continuing their home winning streak from seven games in a row to eight.

Find more Rugby Union Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights