Cronulla Sharks vs Penrith Panthers Predictions: Champions set for another loss?

Potentially one of the biggest games of the NRL Premiership season takes place on Saturday when the table-topping Cronulla Sharks host the three-time defending champions, the Penrith Panthers, at PointsBet Stadium (kick-off 08:30 BST, 17:30 local).

After a winning Magic Round trio of 5/1, 13/5 and 9/1 tips, I have a bit of form going into my Cronulla Sharks vs Penrith Panthers predictions.

Team News

The Sharks are still without Toby Rudolph, who is nursing a knee problem, and Jesse Colquhoun, whose foot injury will keep him out for the foreseeable.

But Craig Fitzgibbon has a full slate to choose from otherwise, and he could well go with the same 17 which saw off the Sydney Roosters in a high-scoring contest at Magic Round in Brisbane.

There are issues at half-back for his counterpart Ivan Cleary, with son Nathan Cleary still out with the hamstring injury which will likely rule him out of half of the remaining fixtures. And back-up option Brad Schneider is again unavailable due to a knee issue sustained in the NSW Cup.

That means Jarome Luai again starts at scrum-half, with 20-year-old Jack Cole starting a second straight game at five-eighth. Other changes see Scott Sorensen replace Luke Garner in the back row and Moses Leota replace Lindsay Smith at prop.

Sharks to win by 6-10 points @ 9/2

Betfred are once again offering a Price Boost here, with the 2/1 for Penrith to score first and lead at the break being boosted to 9/4. But while I’ve gone for the extra incentive for the past couple of weeks, I’m expecting the in-form Sharks to make the most of the Panthers’ weakness in the halves.

With no Cleary and Schneider, the champs are expecting a lot out of Cole and will be relying on Luai picking up some of the slack when it comes to leading the team around the park. But that could well open the door for superstar Nicho Hynes and Daniel Atkinson to boss the game in the later tackles.

The back division of the Sharks looks great to me, and I’m happy to put my weight behind them getting the job done to upset the champions with a tiny bit to spare.

Under 40.5 points @ 5/6

Cronulla might have been involved in a 68-point ding-dong against the Roosters last week but this one is likely to be a much tighter affair. Five of the Sharks’ 10 matches and 30% of the Panthers’ games so far have been sub-41-point clashes and I’m picking the same to be true this weekend.

With a nascent half-back pairing, the wheels might not be moving as smoothly as usual for the Panthers, and the Sharks know how to hang in the battle having won four of their five matches this season featuring fewer than 41 points.

I think this will be a close encounter won late, and as such the under market looks tempting an implied probability of 54.5%.

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