Canberra Raiders vs Sydney Roosters Predictions: Can Kris follow 13/5, 5/1 and 9/1 wins?

Canberra Raiders’ NRL Premiership clash with the Sydney Roosters at GIO Stadium on Saturday (kick-off 06:00 BST, 15:00 local) comes against the backdrop of a big weekend for this column at the Magic Round seven days back.

We had a particularly ‘Magic’ weekend in Round 11, with my 5/1 Raiders tip, 13/5 call on the Broncos and 9/1 Sharks come-from-behind shout all landing. No pressure, then, on my Canberra Raiders vs Sydney Roosters predictions for Round 12.

Team News

Ricky Stuart’s Raiders are without Josh Papali’i due to suspension after his hip-drop on the Canterbury Bulldogs’ Viliame Kikau, for which he was sin-binned last week, was sanctioned with a one-match ban.

Jordan Rapana is available though, after he got away with just a fine having tripped Reed Mahoney, while former Wigan Warriors star Morgan Smithies continues to shine as an ever-present at 13.

Elsewhere, there is still no Corey Horsburgh due to the groin trouble which has kept him out since Round 5. Jamal Fogarty, Corey Harawira-Naera and Zac Hosking remain long-term absentees.

Joey Manu is back for the Roosters after missing Magic Round due to concussion protocols, while Naufahu Whyte comes in at loose forward with Victor Radley switching to the second row and Nat Butcher dropping to the reserve list.

Junior Pauga also steps down to make way for Manu, while Connor Watson (throat), Michael Jennings (triceps) and Billy Smith (ankle) are all out for the foreseeable.

Roosters to win by 6-10 points - Price Boost @ 11/2 (from 9/2)

I said last week that I wasn’t mad keen on the Roosters but ended up snapping up the Price Boost offered by Betfred on them to score first and lead at the break against the Sharks. That one didn’t pay off, but I’m going to take the offer again this week.

This time around there’s a Price Boost available on them winning by a six-to-10-point margin, and that looks tasty to me, particularly at 11/2 from 9/2.

They might trail the Raiders by two points going into this one, but they would be ahead of their opponents were it not for Canberra picking up two points for their Round 10 bye.

And while they are prone to conceding readily, the Roosters have the best attack in the league and have scored 30-plus points in each of their last four games. All that tells me that the Chucks will be able to outlast the Raiders in the scoring stakes, and 6-10 looks good to me.

At an implied probability of 15.4%, 11/2 looks a steal.

Over 44.5 points @ 10/11

As detailed, the Roosters have scored 44 points more than any other NRL team so far in 2024, averaging 30 a game. Throw in the fact that the Raiders score at a rate of 21.4 per match and have the worst defence in the top eight, and suddenly the chances of a low-scoring arm wrestle look miniscule.

Five of the last six Sydney matches have seen the 44.5-point barrier breached, while there have been 40 or more scored in all of the Raiders’ fixtures since an 18-10 loss to the Warriors in Round 3.

I make the 10/11 a generous price for the near-inevitable points fest in the nation’s capital.

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