John Deere Classic 2024 Prop Bet Tips: Dahmen can contend in Illinois

Jamie Worsley has already given us his John Deere Classic Betting Tips but he's also picked out three players who he expects to finish in the Top 20 in Illinois. Here are his John Deere Classic Prop Bet Tips. 

The John Deere Classic begins tomorrow in Illinois and I’ve got three players who can enjoy a good week by landing a top-20 finish at TPC Deere Run.

John Deere Classic Odds

2 pts Joel Dahmen Top 20 @ 3/1

Joel Dahmen has been in excellent ball-striking form in recent starts and having secured the top-20 for us in the Canadian Open two starts ago, I’m hoping he can do the same this week.

After an in-and-out start to the season, Dahmen has been rock-solid over the last couple of months, making his last seven cuts on the spin and comes into this week after a 10^th-place finish in Canada and was 25^th last week in the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

He was actually in a much stronger position entering the final round in Detroit, sitting 7^th, but succumbed to a final-round 76 to slip down the leaderboard. However, that was all down to a really poor day on the greens and with his ball-striking remaining strong, I’m happy to forgive it.

The driver has fired for most of the season, with him ranking 37^th off-the-tee on the PGA Tour, though his iron play is what stands out most. He ranks 9^th in greens-in-regulation, 19^th in approach and is also 19^th in that 125-150 range, which is super-important this week.

Dahmen has missed three of his four cuts here but did finish 2^nd in 2018 on the one occasion he made the weekend. With several top-10s in the Shriners Open and top-25s across the Barbasol Championship, Rocket Mortgage Classic and Travelers Championship, he has lots of form on comp courses and with how well his long game continues to look, I’m expecting another top finish in Illinois.

1.5 pt Nick Hardy Top 20 @ 9/2

Illinois-native, Nick Hardy has been hitting the ball well for the last couple of months now and possessing an ever-improving record at TPC Deere Run, he can finally crack the top-20 this week.

Hardy showed promise at the start of the year, making his first five cuts on the spin, though he followed that by missing his next four. However, he comes into this week after making six of his last eight, results that have predominantly been obtained due to his ball-striking.

His best finish of the year came when finishing 25^th in the Texas Open. A week in which he ranked 5^th in greens-in-regulation and 13^th in ball-striking overall. He was similarly impressive in these areas last week, ranking 12^th in GIR and 16^th in ball-striking, and over his last 20 rounds, he ranks 21^st in approach and 26^th off-the-tee in this field.

Hardy made his debut here in 2017 when still an amateur and finished a respectable 55^th. He then improved on this in 2018 shortly after turning pro, finishing 43^rd and has continued to trend upwards on his next two visits, finishing 30^th in 2022 and 21^st last year. This represents some attractively progressive form at the course and if hitting the ball as well as he did last week, a top-20 should be on the cards this week.

1.5 pts Justin Lower Top 20 @ 9/2

Justin Lower has rediscovered his touch on the greens in recent starts and possessing some appealing stats for this challenge, I expect him to be at the business end of the leaderboard this week.

Lower has been largely consistent this year, making 13 of 18 cuts. He’s made it inside the top-25 on five occasions and turned two of those efforts into top-5s, finishing 3^rd in the Mexico Open and 4^th in the Corales Puntacana Championship.

After missing three straight cuts following a 24^th-place finish in the CJ CUP Byron Nelson six starts ago, he bounced back with a laudable 50^th-place finish on his belated major debut in the US Open. He then carried that positivity over into last week, finishing 25^th in the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

His strengths lie in his approach and putting, a great combination for this test. He ranks 34^th in greens-in-regulation and 37^th in approach, whilst is a superb 9^th in proximity from 125-150 yards; complimenting this with a ranking of 52^nd on the greens.

Lower has played here once before, finishing 51^st in 2022. Top-10 finishes in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and Barbasol Championship suggest he’s capable of improving significantly on that and I expect him to do so this week.

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.