Weekend Football Betting Tips: Best Bets for Matchday 38 in La Liga

It was a very nice two wins from three for Mark Sochon's Best Bets from La Liga last week and as we head into the final Matchday of the season, he's looking for another profitable column.

Check out his three Best Bets for Matchday 38 below as part of his La Liga Weekend Football Betting Tips...

There’ll be no final weekend drama in Spain this season with the title long since wrapped up while the European and relegation battles are also totally resolved. However the top goalscorer race is still alive and it features prominently in this weekend’s La Liga picks.

Girona vs Granada (Friday 20:00)

The Estadi Montilivi should be in party mode with Girona playing their final game in a remarkable season that has seen them not only qualify for the Champions League, but break into the top three, ending more than a decade of domination from Barcelona and the Madrid clubs.

Girona will finish third whatever happens in this match, but Míchel is still expected to name a strong lineup which could spell a lot of trouble for a Granada side that will be playing Segunda División football again next season. They look like a team that just wants the season to end now following four straight defeats with 11 goals conceded and just two scored.

Real Madrid’s “B team” tore them apart at Los Cármenes a fortnight ago with a 4-0 victory and this could go in a similar direction. José Ramón Sandoval may give some of his fringe players minutes with back-up keeper Marc Martínez expected to start in goal again. However, regardless of who has played this season, they’ve invariably been found wanting defensively with 1.95 goals conceded per game on average, the second worst record in the division.

Girona’s two highest scoring players this term are Savio and Artem Dovbyk with 30 league goals between them. For different reasons, they both look certain to start here with Dovbyk currently second in the Pichichi race on 21 goals and in need of at least a brace on Friday night to stay in the hunt. Savio meanwhile is potentially playing his final game for the club with a City Group summer transfer to Manchester City already agreed.

The 20 year old Brazilian has been electric this season on the wing for Girona and will be hungry to sign off with another goal while you’d imagine Míchel will give Dovbyk the full 90 minutes and as much chance as possible to add to his goal tally and potentially end the campaign as La Liga’s top scorer.

With Girona averaging 2.56 goals per home game in La Liga this term and up against a poor Granada side, he’s certainly not out of that race and I’m using the #PickYourPunt tool to back Savio to score anytime and Artem Dovbyk to score anytime at 5/2.

Osasuna vs Villarreal (Saturday 13:00)

The current top goalscorer in La Liga is Villarreal’s Alexander Sørloth who ensured this is very much a two-horse race between himself and Dovbyk for the Pichichi, by scoring a ridiculous four goals in the space of 17 minutes against champions Real Madrid last weekend.

His goalscoring heroics weren’t enough to earn his team more than a point from a game that ended 4-4 though, meaning the Yellow Submarine can no longer qualify for Europe. They sign

off with an away game against an Osasuna side that had been in really poor form, but out of nowhere won 4-1 away to Atlético Madrid last time out.

It’s long-serving Jagoba Arrasate’s last game as Osasuna boss so the hosts will be keen to send him off in the best possible fashion. However there may still be a change in goal while they are still missing their best central defender David García to injury.

That should help a free-scoring Villarreal side create chances and on current form, those are opportunities that Alexander Sørloth is highly likely to gobble up. The Norwegian is on 23 goals for the season now in La Liga with 17 of those coming in 2024.

Since the beginning of March, it feels like he has morphed into compatriot Erling Haaland with 14 in 11 league appearances and his feat is all the more impressive when you consider he hasn’t been on penalty duty with none of his goals this term coming from the spot.

With nothing at stake, it’s possible Marcelino may let his striker take any penalties in this game as Sørloth aims to finish the season as La Liga’s top goalscorer and given that and his stunning form in opening play, I’m backing Alexander Sørloth to score anytime at 10/11.

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club (Saturday 17:30)

This is one of the harder games to call on the final weekend in the Spanish top flight with Athletic Club the slight favourites to leave Vallecas with three points.

To a large extent, last weekend felt like the natural closing point in Athletic’s season though. They beat Sevilla 2-0 at San Mamés with long-serving duo Iker Muniain and Raúl García both scoring and later leaving the pitch to standing ovations in their final home games before summer departures.

It was the perfect send-off for two players who have made huge contributions in La Liga over the past decade or two and the result also guaranteed Athletic Club 5th place, their best finish since the 2015/16 season when Ernesto Valverde was also their coach.

This is a game that serves no real purpose for the visitors as a result and they’ll be without Iñaki Williams due to injury and potentially Gorka Guruzeta and Oihan Sancet too which will leave them without three of their biggest goal threats. Valverde may be tempted to give some youngsters a go too but they were really poor with an experimental lineup in their last away game at Celta and have lost three of their last four on the road overall.

Rayo Vallecano are safe now, but they are still fighting for places and could end up anywhere between 14th and 17th depending on their result on Saturday. That’s the difference of a few million Euros in prize money and for a club like Rayo where funds are tight, that’s not insignificant.

The Madrid side are likely to name something close to their best eleven as a result, allowing for a couple of final day suspensions. They’ve performed better in recent home games, seeing off Osasuna and Granada in Vallecas over the past month while they’d have come into this one following three straight home victories had they made their dominance count and been more clinical against Almería earlier this month.

Putting the ball in the net is the main issue for Rayo, but they’re pretty solid at the back and in midfield and have been slightly more convincing since the appointment of Iñigo Pérez in February.

It’s hard to see Athletic being massively up for this game and a slightly more motivated Rayo may well have the better of it. I’m going with Rayo Vallecano Draw No Bet at Evens which looks like the safer bet given they have drawn 44% of their home fixtures this term in La Liga. 

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...