England vs Slovenia Prediction: Things could get worse for the Three Lions
Two games, four points - at first reading, it sounds pretty positive for England, who can secure top spot in Euro 2024 Group C with a victory over Slovenia at the Cologne Stadium on Tuesday (20:00, ITV 1).
However, the pressure is on Gareth Southgate's side to prove their worth after two lacklustre performances against Serbia and Denmark. Read on for my England vs Slovenia prediction, with everything still to be decided in the group.
England vs Slovenia Betting Tips
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The nation's favourite topic - Southgate's team selection. The England manager named an unchanged XI in Thursday's 1-1 draw with Denmark, sticking faith with the 11 players that started their 1-0 victory over Serbia, despite consternation from supporters.
One would think that following two games in quick succession, and two sub-par performances, changes will be made on Tuesday.
England still need to win to make sure they top the group, so Jordan Pickford is a certainty to start in goal, with Kyle Walker and John Stones on the right-hand side of defence. Marc Guehi was excellent against the Danes and should partner Stones in central defence again, but there are question marks over Kieran Trippier, who hasn't overly impressed.
Still, with Luke Shaw still out, it appears unlikely that the Newcastle United captain will be dropped, with Joe Gomez or Ezri Konsa the only real alternatives in that position.
Declan Rice had probably his worst-ever game for England in midfield against Denmark but should keep his place. However, Trent Alexander-Arnold is in grave danger of losing his starting spot next to him after being hung out to dry in both previous games.
The Liverpool vice-captain needs runners ahead of him but that's something that has been inexplicably neglected by Southgate, who is attempting to shoehorn Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham ahead of him.
Will Southgate drop Foden? He substituted him against the Danes, but you wouldn't bank on him leaving the Manchester City star out on Tuesday, so we may well see a front four of Bellingham, Foden, Bukayo Sako and Harry Kane again, with one of Conor Gallagher or Kobbie Mainoo replacing Alexander-Arnold.
Slovenia are another side yet to make a change to their starting XI, with their current line-up serving them so well in 1-1 draws with Denmark and Serbia.
Question marks were raised over Jan Oblak for Serbia's equaliser on Thursday, but the Atletico Madrid shot-stopper will take his place between the sticks again behind a central defensive pairing of Vanja Drkusic and Jaka Bijol. Full-backs Zan Karnicnik and Erik Janza have been the stars of the show so far, scoring one apiece for the Slovenians, and they will be key at both ends again on Tuesday.
Adam Gnezda Cerin has been a snarling presence in midfield alongside Timi Max Elsnik, with Petar Stojanovic and Jan Mlakar also providing support for the front pairing of Andraz Sporar and Benjamin Sesko.
*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main England vs Slovenia page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.
Despite the doom and gloom among supporters, England are 4/11 to claim victory against the Slovenians, giving them an implied win probability of 73.3%, while their opponents are 17/2, or a 10.5% chance.
The draw is available at 18/5, both teams to score at 6/5, and over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Benjamin Sesko anytime scorer @ 18/5
Much of the chatter over Slovenia heading into the tournament was about their star striker Sesko, who struck 14 times for RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga last season.
It hasn't quite happened for him in front of goal yet, with Slovenia's two goals so far being scored by their full-backs. But there have been flashes of Sesko's deadly ball-striking abilities, notably in Slovenia's opener against Denmark where he twice narrowly missed with a long-range effort, hitting the post with his second.
The 21-year-old missed a great chance in the first half against Serbia, sending a header wide with the goal at his mercy, while he was denied by the goalkeeper with a strike in the second half.
I think Tuesday is his time to shine, and if England give him the space they afforded Morten Hjulmand last Thursday, don't be surprised to see him send a similar shot past Pickford in net.
Draw or Slovenia & over 1.5 total goals @ 18/5
This selection has landed in both Slovenia's group games and their last five games across all competitions, starting with a 2-0 victory over Portugal in an international friendly on March 26.
Slovenia need at least a draw to give themselves a chance of qualifying from Group C, and even that may not be enough to reach the last 16 as one of the four best third-placed sides.
England have a lot to play for as well, as they need a win to secure top spot and, in theory, an easier knockout tie. However, a draw would be enough for them to achieve their aims if Denmark fail to beat Serbia.
It's a tricky one to predict on Tuesday, but I have little faith in England after their showing on Thursday. Sure, Denmark are a good side, and that was supposed to be their biggest test.
But it's just not clicking for England, while Slovenia have impressed me so far, putting a great shift in defensively and showing quality going forward. I see both teams scoring, with Slovenia managing to avoid defeat and giving themselves a chance of qualification.
Correct score - Draw 2-2 @ 22/1
I'm torn between 1-1 or 2-2, but given what's at stake for both, I think we could see a couple of goals on either side. England are under pressure to be a bit more expansive, so it remains to be seen whether they do so, but they might be forced to be if the Denmark result isn't going their way and they need a goal.
Slovenia refuse to lie down, though, as evidenced in their 77th-minute equaliser against the Danes and the fact they held Serbia off until the final minute of second-half added time on Thursday.
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