Cagliari vs Fiorentina Prediction: Visitors to claim vital victory in Sardinia

Celebrations are in order at Unipol Domus on Thursday evening, as Serie A survivalists Cagliari host Europa Conference League finalists Fiorentina. Cagliari secured their safety last weekend with a 2-0 win over Sassuolo but can still finish as high as 13th with a win in their final game of the season, which will also act as Claudio Ranieri's final game in charge amid reports of his impending retirement.

Fiorentina, meanwhile, are not yet assured of a top-eight finish but do have another match left to play against Atalanta on June 2. Read below for my Cagliari vs Fiorentina prediction alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Cagliari defender Alberto Dossena picked up his fifth yellow card of the league campaign last weekend and will serve a one-game ban for his misdemeanors, while midfielders Jakub Jankto and Antoine Makoumbou will miss their side's final match of the season through injury.

Fiorentina forward Riccardo Sottil has been sidelined since May 2 as a result of a broken collarbone and the Italian will miss a fifth straight game on Thursday.

La Viola drew 2-2 with Napoli last Friday and don't play their Europa Conference League final against Olympiakos until Wednesday, May 29, so Vincenzo Italiano isn't under pressure to name a weakened side.

With their place in the top eight still not yet secure, the likes of Nikola Milenkovic, Giacomo Bonaventura and Nicolas Gonzalez should all keep their spots in the starting XI.

Cagliari vs Fiorentina Odds

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Cagliari are 100/30 to end their season on a victory, giving them an implied win probability of 23.1%, while Fiorentina can be backed at 4/5, or a 55.6% chance, and the draw at 11/4.

Both teams to score on Thursday is 4/6 and over 3.5 goals is 7/4.

Fiorentina won October's reverse fixture 3-0 in Florence, with Gonzalez opening the scoring in the third minute. You can back La Viola to win by the same scoreline at 14/1 and Gonzalez to net the first goal at 9/2.

Half-time result - Draw @ 13/10

Cagliari have been drawing at half-time in 14 of their 37 Serie A matches so far this season, and in six of their 18 at home, while 10 of Fiorentina's 36 first halves have ended in a stalemate, five of them on their travels.

La Viola's most recent away game, a 1-1 draw at Verona on May 5, saw both sides head into the interval level, while both of their goals in a 2-0 win at Salernitana on April 21 were scored in the second half.

It was a tight affair in the opening half between Sassuolo and Cagliari last weekend, with no goals scored in the first 45 minutes, and we could see another low-ley start to the game on Thursday.

Fiorentina are eager to win the match to ensure they finish above Torino and Napoli, who are both in action on Sunday, but they don't need to get a goal straight away and can afford to work their way into the contest, moving their hosts about.

Cagliari are a tough nut to crack at home, as evidenced in their six-game unbeaten run at Unipol Domus, and could provide some stern resistance to La Viola's attacks.

Fiorentina to win & both teams to score @ 23/10

Despite making a potentially slow start in Sardinia, I do expect the visitors to grab the three points they require in their pursuit of a top-eight position, with seventh still possible if Lazio lose at home to already-relegated Sassuolo on Sunday, as unlikely as that is.

La Viola's away form is a concern as they have only picked up 19 points from 17 games on their travels - only seven clubs have claimed fewer - and bottom side Salernitana are the only Italian team they have beaten away from home in 2024.

Nonetheless, they now face a Cagliari outfit that has already achieved its goal of staying up and could be in holiday mode, while several Fiorentina players will still be desperate to impress to force their way into the Europa Conference League starting XI.

I think Italiano's men will have just enough to claim victory on Thursday, though the hosts could help themselves to a goal or two.

Both teams have scored in Fiorentina's last four Serie A matches, and their last seven across all competitions, while both teams have found the net in all nine games played at Unipol Domus this calendar year.

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