Argentina vs Peru Prediction: La Bicolor all out to save Copa America campaign
Group A winners Argentina close out their 2024 Copa America group campaign with a match against Peru at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida on Sunday (01:00, Premier Sports 1), with their opponents needing to win and for Canada to lose to Chile to stand a chance of finishing second and joining La Albiceleste in the quarter-finals.
Read below for my Argentina vs Peru prediction and all the latest team news and match odds heading into Sunday's contest.
Argentina vs Peru Betting Tips
Team News
After masterminding victories over Canada (2-0) and Chile (1-0) in Argentina's first two games to clinch top spot in Group A, head coach Lionel Scaloni now has the luxury of being able to rotate, meaning we could see rests for the likes of Lionel Messi, Alexis Mac Allister and Cristian Romero.
Lautaro Martinez is certainly pushing for a start after scoring off the bench against both Canada and Chile, while the likes of Alejandro Garnacho, Exequiel Palacios and German Pezzella are still searching for their first minutes of the tournament.
Peru made just one change from their goalless group opener with Chile, with Marcos Lopez replacing the injured Luis Advincula for their 1-0 defeat to Canada, where La Bicolor's options for Sunday were further reduced with the red card shown to Miguel Araujo.
The Portland Timbers defender will now join Advincula on the sidelines and could be replaced by Anderson Santamaria, who was introduced from the bench shortly after Araujo's dismissal against the Canadians.
Captain and all-time top scorer Paulo Guerrero has only been used as a substitute so far in Copa America and may be forced to join the party late on again given his age (40).
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Despite not needing a result and potentially making wholesale changes, Argentina are still heavy favourites (4/9) on Sunday, with their odds giving them an implied winning probability of 69.2%, while Peru can be backed at 11/2, or a 15.4% chance.
The draw is available at 11/4 and both teams to score at 6/5.
Total goals - over 2.5 @ 1/1
This may be a surprising selection given over 2.5 goals has failed to land in a Group A match so far, with Argentina keeping back-to-back clean sheets and Peru failing to find the net so far at the 2024 Copa America.
However, given there is little at stake for Argentina, and a lot on the line for Peru, I think we could see a slightly different game from one we might usually expect.
That's not to say that Peru will go all out attack from the start - far from it - but at some point they might need to open up more and play higher up which, while increasing their own chances of scoring, may leave them even more vulnerable to a dangerous Argentina attack.
I actually think there is a greater likelihood of this selection landing if the likes of Messi and Mac Allister don't play from the start on Sunday; fringe players like Martinez will be desperate to show their ability and prove that they are viable starting candidates in the knockout stages, while Messi would be a dangerous substitute to bring off the bench late on against tiring Peruvian legs.
There haven't been over 2.5 goals in the last four meetings between Argentina and Peru, but the most recent game between the pair - a 2-0 victory for La Albiceleste last October - saw Messi bag a first-half brace before being denied a hat-trick in the second half following a VAR decision.
Bet Builder - Peru over 8.5 shots, Gianluca Lapadula 2+ shots, Peru over 1.5 offsides, Peru over 23.5 tackles @ 15/2
Given the unpredictability surrounding Argentina's starting XI, my second selection is a 15/2 bet builder based purely around Peru, as their intentions on Sunday are already clear.
They only had seven shots in their group opener with Chile - four of them coming in the second half - but upped the count to nine against Canada, three of them arriving after Araujo had been sent off in the 59th minute.
Peru only mustered six shots against Argentina in October but in the context of 2024 Copa America Group A, they can definitely improve on that number and reach at least nine on Sunday.
Canada managed to record 10 shots against Argentina in the tournament's opener, and with a potentially new-look line-up at the Hard Rock Stadium this weekend, Scaloni's side could be put under more pressure from a desperate Peru outfit looking to stay in the competition.
Peru need to beat the reigning champions and hope Chile beat Canada, but not by a big margin as they need to at least match Chile's score to finish second.
Gianluca Lapadula has been Peru's biggest shot taker at the tournament, shooting three times against Chile and four times against Canada for a 3.5 shots per game average - no other Peruvian is on more than one shot per game.
The 34-year-old striker missed October's match-up between the sides but if you like your history, he registered two shots in the prior head-to-head, a 1-0 win for Argentina in October 2021.
That game nearly four years ago saw zero offsides given against Peru, but they were flagged three times in their last meeting with Argentina, who caught each of Canada and Chile offside once in their first two group matches.
Peru have been caught offside five times at this year's Copa America so far - twice against Chile and three times against Canada - and could be flagged at least a couple of times on Sunday as they push for a win.
The last leg of this bet builder requires Peru to make at least 24 tackles, and the pre-match stats make for positive reading.
Peru are the competition's top tacklers after two matches, averaging 28 tackles per game after making 25 against Chile and 31 against Canada.
Argentina, meanwhile, were tackled 29 times by Canada and 22 times by Chile.
With Peru needing to show some aggression on Sunday, I think at least 24 tackles is more than achievable.
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