Argentina vs Ecuador Prediction: La Albiceleste to edge first pre-Copa America friendly

Argentina and Ecuador begin preparations for the 2024 Copa America in the USA with an international friendly at Soldier Field in Chicago on Monday (KO, 00:00). The countries met once last year, in September when Lionel Messi struck in the 78th minute to secure a 1-0 victory in 2026 World Cup qualifying for La Albiceleste.

Read on for my Argentina vs Ecuador prediction, where you can also find all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Messi missed Argentina's two friendlies in March - wins over El Salvador (3-0) and Costa Rica (3-1) - through injury but played the entirety of Inter Miami's last two matches, scoring in a 3-1 defeat to Atlanta United on May 30 and a 3-3 draw with St. Louis City three days later.

The suggestion is that the 36-year-old will lead his country out at Soldier Field, but that he could be joined by some more inexperienced players in the starting XI.

Alejandro Garnacho, Valentin Barco and Leonardi Balerdi each have five or fewer caps and will be hoping for opportunities against Ecuador, while the likes of Lautaro Martinez and Exequiel Palacios will be hoping for minutes after triumphant seasons for their clubs.

Ecuador captain Enner Valencia recently returned from injury for club side Internacional and is expected to lead the line in Chicago, supported by the likes of Moises Caicedo and 17-year-old wonderkid Kendry Paez.

Argentina vs Ecuador Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Argentina vs Ecuador page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Argentina are priced at 4/7 to secure back-to-back victories over Ecuador, giving them an implied win probability of 63.6%, while La Tri are 5/1, or a 16.7% chance, to beat their South American rivals for the first time since October 2015.

The draw can be backed at 3/1, both teams to score at 10/11, and over 3.5 goals at 9/4.

Argentina to win & under 2.5 goals @ 12/5

Very little has gone wrong for Lionel Scaloni since taking charge of Argentina in August 2018. The former West Ham United full-back has won 48 of his 69 games to post a 69.6% win ratio, and since beating France on penalties to lift the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, La Albiceleste have been near-faultless.

Only Uruguay - who shocked them 2-0 in Buenos Aires last November - have denied them victory, with Argentina winning their other 12 matches, which includes a 1-0 win in Rio de Janeiro against Brazil.

Scaloni's side have blown away the likes of Curacao (7-0), Costa Rica (3-1), Bolivia and El Salvador (both 3-0) in that time, but their other eight victories have seen under 2.5 goals scored, including their 1-0 triumph against Ecuador in September.

La Tri, meanwhile, are a pretty solid outfit, keeping clean sheets in four consecutive games - keeping out the likes of Venezuela and Colombia - before losing 2-0 to Italy last time out. They can certainly keep the score down on Monday, but I expect Argentina to emerge victorious.

Correct score - Argentina 1-0 Ecuador @ 5/1

This was the scoreline when the sides met at Estadio Monumental in September, and Argentina have won two further games since - against Paraguay and Brazil - by a goal to nil.

I've already mentioned Ecuador's resolute defence, which has conceded just 11 times in 12 games since their group-stage exit at the 2022 World Cup, and given it's Argentina's first game for over two months - and on the back of a long season for many of their players - I think it will be a close encounter on Monday, one which Messi and co just about edge.

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