Premier League Darts 2024 Finals Odds: Boosted double for London

| Wednesday 22nd May 2024, 20:34pm

Wednesday 22nd May 2024, 20:34pm

The Premier League finally reaches its climax at the O2 Arena in London on Thursday night (19:15). Luke Littler, Luke Humphries, Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith are the final four but which one of them will prevail?

Our Darts expert Sean Rafferty previews the two semi-finals and gives us his Premier League Darts Finals predictions, including a double that's been boosted from 5/4 to 6/4!

Premier League Finals Betting Tips

Michael Smith +3.5 legs handicap @ 8/15
Luke Humphries most 180s @ 1/2

3 pts Boosted Double @ ~~5/4~~ 6/4

Draw

Semi-finals (best of 19 legs)

Luke Littler – Michael Smith
Luke Humphries – Michael van Gerwen

Sixteen gruelling weeks of action all come down to this - finals night at the O2 Arena in London. Luke Littler topped the league phase with some sterling performances throughout, but whoever wins this mini knockout tournament of four, will be crowned Premier League champion.

In terms of an outright winner for this, I already tipped up a 3pt stake on Luke Humphries to win this outright @ 11/4, in my Premier League Preview article posted way back at the end of January. As I say, I still feel he is the most likely winner of the event so I don’t feel the need to put up any additional outrights and will be sticking to the match betting only.

Michael Smith +3.5 legs handicap @ 8/15

For a spell in the league phase, I couldn’t really see past Littler being the champ unless something changed - I’d say that has happened over the last few weeks, as The Nuke’s form has finally taken a bit of a dip, whilst Humphries appears to be rediscovering his top form.

This match has been priced up as expecting a comfortable Littler win - I can’t say I’m in full agreement. Michael Smith has boasted a strong record against Littler since locking horns for the first time this year - they’ve played each other a staggering seven times in this PL campaign (perhaps exposing the repetitive nature of this tournament/format).

In these seven meetings, Bully Boy has managed to run out winner in five of them, most recently in last weeks semi finals. There doesn’t seem to be any obvious reason for this record, as Littler has enjoyed a more successful year to date, but there’s no denying Smith seems to enjoy playing him.

In interviews from last week, Smith seems to be keeping pretty level headed about his chances on Finals Night, which isn’t always the case with him. He looks to be trying to shift the pressure onto his opponent Littler, which is the case, as he’ll look to drive home his advantage of topping the table.

Smith won a Pro Tour title at the start of the month, his first ranking title for 11 months and looks to have taken some confidence from that. I see this being tight but the value is all with Smith, Bully Boy to win 7+ legs at 8/15 looks a good shout.

Luke Humphries most 180s @ 1/2

This could be a really intriguing clash - Humphries is arguably playing better darts than anyone else on the planet just now, but MVG has a formidable record at the O2 Arena when it comes to Finals Night in the Premier League. The Green Machine has reached the final in nine of his previous 11 PL appearances, winning seven of those.

So over the years he has been very dominant at this stage and tough to beat, whilst possessing the most experience by a country mile. Humphries has dominated against Van Gerwen this year in previous meetings - MVG won the first meeting, Humphries has won all six following that.

It's clearly no issue for Cool Hand overcoming the most successful player of the past 10 or so years, but he’ll need to be on the top of his game. MVG appeared to experiment with a new equipment set up last week (new darts), averaging over 105 against Cross with them, then still averaged over 101 in defeat to Humphries in the semi finals.

As we already have Humphries to win the event, I’d rather look elsewhere in this match and Humphries 180s looks to be the best value - 1/2 for Humphries most 180s looks absolutely cracking value, based on recent history. Over the past 12 months, the 180 ratios are 0.36 per leg for Humphries and 0.29 per leg for MVG, so Humphries holds the edge here.

What’s more telling though is their matches against each other - in their last 11 matches against each other, Humphries has hit the most 180s in nine occasions, with the other two finishing level on the maximum count. So MVG has failed to hit most 180s in their last 11 encounters - 1/2 looks a brilliant number for Cool Hand to hit most over this longer format which is more reliable for 180s.

3 pts Boosted Double @ ~~5/4~~ 6/4