England Odds to win World Cup: Are they Betting Value?

Defending champions and two-time winners England go into the 2024 T20 World Cup as the third-favourites behind India (3/1) and Australia (7/2) with Jos Buttler leading a side containing some fresh talent and some experienced heads.

But is that a good price? A look at their past record in World Cups, win rate in the Caribbean and the pros and cons of their squad will reveal the answer as Jamie Pacheco takes a deep-dive into whether England's Odds to Win the ICC T20 World Cup represent Betting Value or not...

2022 T20 World Cup performance

They won it. They were absolutely flawless in the chase in the semi-final against favourites India, with Alex Hales (86 not out) and Jos Buttler (80 not out) making light work of a total of 169 after the likes of Adil Rashid and Liam Livingstone kept India to a below-par score with the ball.

In the final, Player of the Tournament Sam Curran took 3/12 to help restrict Pakistan to a total that was never going to be enough (137) though they needed the cool head of World Cup final specialist Ben Stokes and his 52 off 49 to get them over the line.

That said, they were somewhat fortunate to even make the semis. Having lost a rain-affected match to Ireland, they benefited from their game against Australia being washed out and only just managed to beat Sri Lanka in their last group match.

Rating: 8.5/10

World Cup pedigree

In 2022 they joined the West Indies as the only two-time winners of the tournament, not forgetting they also made the final in the famous ‘Carlos Brathwaite…remember the name’ match back in 2016 when Ben Stokes was making headlines in the showdown match for all the wrong reasons, for a change.

Still, with a win rate of 55.81% in this competition, they’re only ranked seventh for the best win rate with all of (in order from highest to lowest) India, Australia, Sri Lanka, South Africa, Pakistan and New Zealand boasting superior win rates across all WC matches.

Rating: 7.5/10

Record in the Caribbean

England’s first World Cup win was in the one and only T20 WC hosted in the Caribbean back in 2010, where they easily beat Australia in the final and a certain Kevin Pietersen was voted Player of the Tournament. It goes without saying that none of the members of that team are still active for England.

Less impressive is their record in the West Indies against the West Indies. They’ve won eight and lost 10, most recently being on the wrong end of a 3-2 scoreline back in December 2023. Just over a year before that, they lost by the exact scoreline, suggesting these aren’t their favourite conditions.

Rating: 7.5/10

2024 Squad

Ben Stokes has taken the decision to sit this one out and unlike with the 2023 ODI World Cup, there will be no last-minute volte-face this time round. It may not be such a loss, though.

He’s never really got going in the IPL and he’s never settled on an ideal batting position for himself in this format. If he wasn’t going to bowl and was there just as a specialist batsman, better options were, and are, available.

No-one else is unavailable through injury, personal or other reasons.

They’ll boast one of the best and most powerful top-orders with the likes of Jos Buttler, Phil Salt, Jonny Bairstow and Ben Duckett all very reliable. The impressive Will Jacks may have to settle for a spot at number five with Liam Livingstone a key man given his useful off-spin.

But they’re a bit thin on the ground in terms of left-handers, unless Ali or Curran are promoted to bat in the Top 5. Alternatively, they can play southpaw Duckett for that very reason.

They should have good balance with all of Jacks, Livingstone, Sam Curran and Moeen Ali all-rounders in their own right.

But it’s with the ball they might be a bit suspect. They’ll be praying that the returning Jofra Archer stays fit but even if he does, he’ll inevitably come to the tournament under-cooked after playing almost no cricket at all for three years.

Mark Wood will have his moments with his express pace but is another one with a worrying injury record.

Spinner Adil Rashid is reliable enough and so is Ali but other sides like India and Pakistan will have more and better spin options on low, dusty, turning West Indies wickets.

Rating: 7/10

Players’ form

The jury is still out as to whether having a team packed with players who have been featuring in the IPL for the last two months is a benefit or hindrance. But here’s what we do know.

Buttler, Jacks and Salt have all been relatively consistent and each had their moment in the sun at one stage or another this IPL.

Ali has neither been great nor poor; Curran hasn’t got going with the bat, has been expensive with the ball, albeit he’s taken over-a-wicket-a-game. Livingstone has missed half of the season through injury and hadn’t done much prior to that.

Then there’s the curious case of Bairstow, who hit one of the knocks of the tournament with a match-winning 108 not out. Curious because that’s all he did, failing to reach 50 in his other eight appearances and being dropped by Kings Punjab for two matches, before returning and striking that century.

Rating: 7/10

Are England a value bet @ 4/1?

Not for me.

If they get to play on flat wickets, with small boundaries in high-scoring matches, they’ll have very chance. But that’s unlikely.

At one stage or another they’ll be playing on dry pitches taking turn where their batsmen will have to grind out their runs, while their bowlers will need to be thinking dots and singles rather than wickets. Neither England batters or bowlers are best-suited to these sorts of conditions or types of matches, while other sides will find them more to their liking.

Worse still, one of the semis will be played in Guyana, where as we know from the Caribbean Premier League, it’s not uncommon for spinners to bowl 12-15 overs in an innings and where 135 is often par. If they get that far and are up against a premier side, they should go off as outsiders in Guyana simply because of the conditions.

A powerful top order, lots of bowling options thanks to boasting 2-3 all-rounders and the calm captaincy of Buttler are however, positives. Getting out of a group containing Australia, Namibia, Scotland and Oman shouldn’t be a problem, so who they’re paired with in their Super 8 stage should have a big bearing on whether they progress to the semis. But there are better bets out there on other sides who tick more boxes. Starting with Pakistan, who I tipped up in my ICC T20 World Cup Betting Guide...

Jamie Pacheco primarily covers Cricket for us at Betfred Insights, you can check out all of the Cricket Betting Tips from him and the team at our Cricket hub page...