Moloney vs Guevara Predictions: The Monster to snatch a close one

Andrew Moloney faces late replacement Pedro Guevara this Saturday, May 11. The Australian was originally set to face Carlos Cuadras, but will now meet another Mexican ex-world champion for the WBC interim super flyweight title.

The RAC Arena in Perth will play host to the match-up, on the undercard of Vasiliy Lomachenko vs George Kambosos Jr. You can watch the fight live on Sky Sports Action. Here are my Moloney vs Guevara predictions as an interim champion is crowned.

Moloney comes into this fight looking to restore some family pride. Twin brother Jason lost his WBO bantamweight title to Yoshiki Takei in Japan this week. Naturally, the siblings are often compared. Both are former world champions, a designation that puts them among the likes of Wladimir and Vitali Klitschko, Michael and Leon Spinks, Jermell and Jermall Charlo and Juan Manuel and Rafael Marquez.

Now Andrew looks to bring a world title back to the Moloney clan, albeit in the form of an interim title. The move to crown an interim belt-holder here is an utterly pointless one from the WBC. Full champion Juan Francisco Estrada defends the full title against Jesse Rodriguez next month. How hard would it have been to make Moloney-Guevara a final eliminator for a mandatory shot at the Estrada-Rodriguez winner? Once again boxing shoots itself in the foot.

But regardless of the value of the title belt up for grabs, this is an interesting match-up. As replacements go, Pedro Guevara is a quality choice for the absent Carlos Cuadras. The Mexican pair actually faced off in November, with Cuadras winning a tight split decision. Guevara rebounded from that close loss in February, outpointing Lamberto Macias over 10.

At the age of 34, you wonder if Guevara is edging towards the end of an excellent career. For a period in the 2010s, he was widely ranked as the top flyweight in the world. Those days are behind him now, but the veteran is still yet to taste a truly decisive defeat.

John Riel Casimero, Yu Kimura, Kenshiro Teraji and Cuadras have all beaten him over the years. But each of those fights had two things in common. Each was for a version of the world title and every result was either via split or majority decision. Guevara only loses to the very best and he always troubles them throughout the fight.

However, it is nearing a decade since Guevara last held a world title. He lost the WBC flyweight strap in 2015 and despite being a fixture at elite level since, he is yet to win another title. While still providing the toughest of tests for the world’s best fighters, Guevara has got out of the habit of beating them.

Moloney has been on the fringes of that level. His own world title came and went in 2019 and 2020. ‘The Monster’ has had a shot since, losing via 12th-round knockout to WBO super flyweight champion Junto Nakatani. The Aussie had taken a pounding all night, hitting the deck twice going into the final session. But the crushing overhand left that ended matters would net Nakatani numerous Knockout of the Year awards. A masterpiece in devastation.

Moloney rebounded with a decision win over Filipino Judy Flores in December. Now he aims to put the brutal Nakatani beating behind him once and for all. His own personal boogeyman, Joshua Franco, is the only other fighter to have beaten him. ‘El Profesor’ holds two victories over the Aussie, with the second of their three contests ending in a No Contest due to a cut. 

I don’t think those setbacks will impact Moloney here. Guevara will push him for sure, but he won’t break ‘The Monster’. I’m backing Moloney to pull this one out of the fire. A victory for the 33-year-old is priced at 1/2.

I think this fight might be a little closer than expected. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Guevara leave Perth lamenting another split or majority decision loss that could have perhaps gone his way. But ultimately I’m predicting that Moloney will prevail, restoring some form of world title to his family name.

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