Hernandez vs Lugo Predictions: Eduardo’s KO show

Mexican knockout artist Eduardo Hernandez will face off with Daniel Lugo this Saturday, May 11. This super featherweight contest takes place at Palenque de la Feria in Aguascalientes, Mexico. DAZN televise the match-up as Hernandez’s looks to get back into winning form. Here are my Hernandez vs Lugo predictions ahead of Saturday’s scrap.

Hernandez has built a fearsome reputation as a KO-puncher. The Mexico City-born scrapper has 31 knockouts from 34 wins for a muscular 87% stoppage ratio. 10 of his quick wins have come in the very first round. Perhaps summing up his all-action style, one of his two defeats also came in the opener when former WBA champion Roger Gutierrez knocked him out one round into their 2019 contest.

Hernandez’s second career defeat came in his last bout. After the Gutierrez reverse, ‘Rocky’ had racked up six wins, all by KO. This red-hot run of form earned the Mexican a shot at WBC super featherweight champion O’Shaquie Foster. 

Hernandez impressed against a passive Foster, dominating the mercurial American. He was ahead on two of the three scorecards as the bout entered its final round. Foster rocked his challenger and Hernandez made the fatal mistake of trying to go to war rather than spoil. A canny defence could have netted Hernandez the WBC belt. Instead, his foolhardy swinging saw him knocked down twice and stopped with 22 seconds remaining.

It must have been a complicated result for Hernandez to process. For the majority of the 12 rounds, he was the superior fighter. It was ultimately a moment of hubris that proved the difference between the promised land and the abyss. Hernandez must wonder; is he a world class fighter because he dominated Foster, or is he below that level because he didn’t stick the landing?

In order to further test his mettle at the elite level, Hernandez must first get past Daniel Lugo. ‘Caballo’ sprung something of a surprise in his last fight, managing a majority draw against former WBA featherweight champion Mauricio Lara. That result, against a man who holds wins over UK pair Josh Warrington and Leigh Wood, was arguably a career highlight for Lugo.

It has earned him a headline attraction against another world-ranked contender. A victory here for Lugo could propel him through the super featherweight glass ceiling. The idea of challenging at the top end of the division would have seemed distant before that Lara result. Lugo had been stopped in six rounds by the ordinary Edwin Palomares three years before. He also lost an early-career bout on points to Jair Quintero, who was 6-5-3 at the time. 

This fight will be an acid test of where Lugo really is. Was his fine performance against Lara partially down to the former world champion’s sluggish complacency? Or was it a case of a previously-unheralded boxer maturing into world-level consistency? 

My instinct leans towards the former. While Lugo boxed well against Lara, it was clear this was not the same Warrington-conquering phenom from before. I don’t see Hernandez approaching this fight with the same lax attitude. The hunger he will have after the Foster near-miss will fire him up for this. This is a high-risk, low-reward fight for Hernandez. He won’t take any chances.

That is why I’m picking Hernandez to add to his highlight reel with another stoppage here. ‘Rocky’ loves a finish in five rounds of less so I’m going for a knockout in round 4 priced at 8/1. Without disrespecting Lugo, this is Hernandez’s fight to lose. After what happened against Foster, I just don’t think he will allow himself to suffer defeat.

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